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Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 15 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 02:30
Final 109-118
23-29 23-34 32-25 31-30
Position#24
Record15-25
FormWWLLW
Points / game113.0
Allowed / game116.8
vs
Position#6
Record27-13
FormWWLWW
Points / game122.7
Allowed / game117.5
USANBA· American Airlines Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets
31 Mar 2027
DAL v DEN
upcoming
14 Jan 2026
DAL109
DEN118
23 Dec 2025
DAL131
DEN130
14 Jan 2025
DAL99
DEN118
12 Jan 2025
DAL101
DEN112
17 Mar 2024
DAL107
DEN105
20 Nov 2022
DAL97
DEN98
18 Nov 2022
DAL127
DEN99
03 Jan 2022
DAL103
DEN89
15 Nov 2021
DAL111
DEN101
25 Jan 2021
DAL113
DEN117
11 Mar 2020
DAL113
DEN97
08 Jan 2020
DAL106
DEN107
22 Feb 2019
DAL104
DEN114
06 Mar 2018
DAL118
DEN107
04 Dec 2017
DAL122
DEN105
11 Apr 2017
DAL91
DEN109
12 Dec 2016
DAL112
DEN92
26 Feb 2016
DAL122
DEN116
28 Nov 2015
DAL92
DEN81
16 Jan 2015
DAL97
DEN89
21 Mar 2014
DAL122
DEN106
25 Nov 2013
DAL96
DEN110
12 Apr 2013
DAL108
DEN105
28 Dec 2012
DAL85
DEN106
15 Feb 2012
DAL102
DEN84
26 Dec 2011
DAL93
DEN115
06 Apr 2011
DAL96
DEN104
06 Nov 2010
DAL92
DEN103
29 Mar 2010
DAL109
DEN93
11 May 2009
DAL119
DEN117
09 May 2009
DAL105
DEN106
27 Mar 2009
DAL101
DEN103
15 Dec 2008
DAL88
DEN98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dallas Mavericks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
131-130
131
130
+1
128avg 103
H24/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
116-126
116
126
-10
104avg 103
A25/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
107-113
107
113
-6
101avg 103
A27/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
122-125
122
125
-3
118avg 103
A30/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
108-123
108
123
-15
94avg 103
H02/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
110-104
110
104
+6
110avg 103
H04/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
100-98
100
98
+2
86avg 103
A07/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
114-116
114
116
-2
116avg 103
A09/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
L
107-125
107
125
-18
94avg 103
A11/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
113-105
113
105
+8
107avg 103
H13/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
41-27
25-29
37-47
28-27
28-40
30-31
31-29
27-26
23-31
21-28
33-29
30-25
29-42
34-33
30-22
29-28
33-27
24-41
26-24
25-31
25-31
32-19
30-25
23-29
25-35
21-23
30-20
24-20
29-34
26-24
34-30
25-28
28-36
27-30
24-28
28-31
32-23
24-22
28-32
29-28
229.3Avg total
112.8Scored
116.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (40)113.0116.8229.8-3.938%
Season at home (21)114.0115.1229.0-1.152%
Season away (19)111.9118.7230.6-6.821%
Last 10 (10)112.8116.5229.3-3.740%
Last 5 (5)108.8109.6218.4-0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)116.8120.0236.8-3.242%
vs Similar (7)113.6119.0232.6-5.414%
vs Weaker (4)109.8106.8216.5+3.075%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#13
L
126-127
126
127
-1
126avg 114
A28/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
123-147
123
147
-24
116avg 114
A30/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
106-103
106
103
+3
97avg 114
A01/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
108-113
108
113
-5
92avg 114
A03/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
115-127
115
127
-12
106avg 114
A04/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
125-124 OT
125
124
+1
120avg 114
A06/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
114-110
114
110
+4
104avg 114
A08/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
87-110
87
110
-23
84avg 114
H10/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
108-104
108
104
+4
97avg 114
H12/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
122-116
122
116
+6
110avg 114
A14/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-23
31-25
31-36
33-43
29-41
34-22
36-47
24-37
32-23
31-31
22-25
21-24
24-28
35-34
38-26
11-25
29-33
23-26
32-41
31-27
29-26
29-32
29-35
33-27
31-35
27-23
21-24
35-28
28-30
22-28
25-16
12-36
27-23
35-29
23-22
23-30
32-31
28-34
29-27
33-24
231.5Avg total
113.4Scored
118.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (40)122.7117.5240.2+5.268%
Season at home (17)122.8116.8239.6+5.965%
Season away (23)122.7117.9240.6+4.770%
Last 10 (10)113.4118.1231.5-4.750%
Last 5 (5)111.2112.8224.0-1.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (15)119.3119.2238.5+0.167%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)125.3120.2245.5+5.160%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.3-3.3Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -4.5-4.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.3-3.3Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -4.5-4.5
Dallas MavericksDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
66-56
66
56
+10
H24/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
58-71
58
71
-13
A25/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
44-59
44
59
-15
A27/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
63-75
63
75
-12
A30/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
57-68
57
68
-11
H02/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H04/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
46-58
46
58
-12
A07/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
55-58
55
58
-3
A09/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
L
55-66
55
66
-11
A11/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
56-45
56
45
+11
H13/01
NBA
116.3Avg total
55.7Scored
60.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.459.6116.0-3.240%-
Last 30 at home (15)57.156.3113.4+0.753%-
Last 30 away (15)55.862.9118.7-7.127%-
Last 10 (10)55.760.6116.3-4.930%-
Last 5 (5)53.855.4109.2-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)56.960.7117.6-3.832%-
vs Similar (7)57.358.7116.0-1.457%-
vs Weaker (4)52.855.8108.5-3.050%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#13
W
62-48
62
48
+14
A28/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
D
63-63
63
63
+0
A30/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
63-54
63
54
+9
A01/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
59-62
59
62
-3
A03/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
52-59
52
59
-7
A04/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
D
58-58
58
58
+0
A06/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
D
58-58
58
58
+0
A08/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
50-58
50
58
-8
H10/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
62-52
62
52
+10
H12/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
60-65
60
65
-5
A14/01
NBA
116.4Avg total
58.7Scored
57.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.757.9118.6+2.950%-
Last 30 at home (11)61.856.5118.3+5.473%-
Last 30 away (19)60.158.7118.8+1.437%-
Last 10 (10)58.757.7116.4+1.030%-
Last 5 (5)57.658.2115.8-0.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (15)57.758.7116.4-1.133%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)63.857.0120.8+6.867%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 112.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers67.0 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.033.5
54.9%
54.8%67.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.110.4
37.0%
35.8%31.2
🏀 Free throws19.314.6
75.6%
78.1%14.6
They take 89.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 113.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.4 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.1 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.025.7
52.4%
54.8%51.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.513.7
38.6%
35.8%41.1
🏀 Free throws26.220.9
79.8%
78.1%20.9
They take 84.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Dallas Mavericks
WLLWWLLLLW
Denver Nuggets
WWLWWLLWLL
#24
League position
#6
-3.6
Net rating
-4.8
109.2
Offensive rating
114.7
112.8
Defensive rating
119.4
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.7%
54.2%
Opp. effective FG%
55.4%
13.7%
Turnover %
11.2%
19.9%
Off. rebound %
19.8%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.31
37.0%
3-point %
38.6%
58.5%
Assist %
63.5%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.2 · 114.7Defence112.8 · 119.4Shooting55.1% · 54.7%3-point %37.0% · 38.6%Ball care13.7% · 11.2%Off. rebounds19.9% · 19.8%Free throws0.22 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Dallas Mavericks   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Dallas Mavericks wins
6
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/26HBrooklyn Nets113-105
11/01/26AChicago Bulls107-125
09/01/26AUtah Jazz114-116
07/01/26ASacramento Kings100-98
04/01/26HHouston Rockets110-104
02/01/26HPhiladelphia 76ers108-123
30/12/25APortland Trail Blazers122-125
27/12/25ASacramento Kings107-113
25/12/25AGolden State Warriors116-126
24/12/25HDenver Nuggets131-130
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/01/26ANew Orleans Pelicans122-116
12/01/26HMilwaukee Bucks108-104
10/01/26HAtlanta Hawks87-110
08/01/26ABoston Celtics114-110
06/01/26APhiladelphia 76ers125-124 OT
04/01/26ABrooklyn Nets115-127
03/01/26ACleveland Cavaliers108-113
01/01/26AToronto Raptors106-103
30/12/25AMiami Heat123-147
28/12/25AOrlando Magic126-127

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW38%
HomeWWLWW52%
AwayLLWLL21%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games402119
Win %38%52%21%
Points / game113.0114.0111.9
Allowed / game116.8115.1118.7
Point differential-3.9-1.1-6.8
Avg total229.8229.0230.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%14%5%
Close games (≤5 pts) won54% (13)62% (8)40% (5)
Overtime %10%14%5%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW68%
HomeLWWLW65%
AwayLLWWW70%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games401723
Win %68%65%70%
Points / game122.7122.8122.7
Allowed / game117.5116.8117.9
Point differential+5.2+5.9+4.7
Avg total240.2239.6240.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%41%35%
Close games (≤5 pts) won53% (15)50% (6)56% (9)
Overtime %10%12%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder3933685%121.2108.5+12.7
2 Detroit Pistons38281074%117.8111.2+6.6
3 Denver Nuggets40271368%122.7117.5+5.2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves41271466%120.3114.6+5.8
5 San Antonio Spurs38251366%117.4112.7+4.7
6 Los Angeles Lakers37241365%116.4116.0+0.4
7 Houston Rockets37231462%117.9110.8+7.1
8 New York Knicks37231462%119.2115.2+4.0
9 Boston Celtics39241562%116.6110.1+6.5
10 Phoenix Suns39241562%115.5111.5+4.0
11 Toronto Raptors41251661%114.2112.0+2.2
12 Philadelphia 76ers39221756%116.8115.6+1.2
13 Orlando Magic38211755%116.1114.7+1.4
14 Cleveland Cavaliers42231955%120.1117.5+2.6
15 Miami Heat39211854%119.8117.8+2.0
16 Golden State Warriors41221954%115.5113.2+2.3
17 Atlanta Hawks42202248%118.3118.9-0.6
18 Chicago Bulls40192148%117.5120.9-3.5
19 Portland Trail Blazers41192246%115.8118.9-3.0
20 Memphis Grizzlies39172244%114.9116.2-1.3
21 Milwaukee Bucks40172342%112.7115.7-3.0
22 Los Angeles Clippers39162341%112.1113.5-1.4
23 Dallas Mavericks40152538%113.0116.8-3.9
24 Charlotte Hornets40142635%116.1116.7-0.5
25 Utah Jazz40142635%119.3127.0-7.7
26 Brooklyn Nets38112729%108.8113.9-5.1
27 Washington Wizards38102826%112.8124.0-11.2
28 Sacramento Kings40103025%110.2121.2-11.1
29 New Orleans Pelicans43103323%114.9122.2-7.3
30 Indiana Pacers4193222%110.6118.3-7.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Dallas Mavericks23233231109
Denver Nuggets29342530118
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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