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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 13 Jan 2023
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 108-102
14-23 31-22 33-28 30-29
Position#10
Record22-20
FormWLWLW
Points / game108.8
Allowed / game109.0
vs
Position#1
Record27-14
FormWWLWW
Points / game112.4
Allowed / game111.0
USANBA· Miami-Dade Arena
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#24
L
108-111
108
111
-3
93avg 101
H24/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
W
113-110
113
110
+3
98avg 101
H27/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
112-98
112
98
+14
96avg 101
H29/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
119-124
119
124
-5
105avg 101
A31/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
W
126-123
126
123
+3
120avg 101
A01/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
110-100
110
100
+10
104avg 101
A03/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
L
109-112
109
112
-3
96avg 101
A05/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
104-96
104
96
+8
92avg 101
A07/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
101-102
101
102
-1
86avg 101
H08/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
112-111
112
111
+1
102avg 101
H11/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-31
30-25
24-28
26-27
33-31
26-25
34-30
20-24
33-25
28-27
34-26
17-20
19-23
38-37
33-25
29-39
31-30
38-33
27-35
30-25
34-28
33-21
14-34
29-17
23-32
25-20
30-27
31-33
30-23
21-23
27-27
26-23
30-31
34-35
18-13
19-23
31-26
32-30
26-32
23-23
220.1Avg total
111.4Scored
108.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)108.8109.0217.8-0.252%
Season at home (21)109.7109.4219.0+0.357%
Season away (21)107.9108.6216.5-0.748%
Last 10 (10)111.4108.7220.1+2.760%
Last 5 (5)107.2104.2211.4+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)111.8121.8233.5-10.025%
vs Similar ◀ (21)107.4105.9213.3+1.662%
vs Weaker (5)112.2111.0223.2+1.260%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
100-118
100
118
-18
88avg 106
A24/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
118-139
118
139
-21
108avg 106
A25/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
113-119 OT
113
119
-6
92avg 106
A29/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
W
123-114
123
114
+9
123avg 106
H31/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
L
95-118
95
118
-23
78avg 106
H02/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
123-113
123
113
+10
115avg 106
H04/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
W
104-101 OT
104
101
+3
108avg 106
A05/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
L
109-138
109
138
-29
99avg 106
H07/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
111-107
111
107
+4
106avg 106
A10/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
114-105
114
105
+9
110avg 106
A12/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-36
18-24
28-25
25-33
28-36
33-26
25-38
32-39
32-28
23-29
27-22
24-27
33-34
17-27
39-22
34-31
17-34
33-34
20-20
25-30
32-28
29-21
29-36
33-28
13-12
26-26
24-21
34-38
28-51
32-33
27-28
22-26
22-22
24-29
27-27
38-29
39-19
28-27
22-36
25-23
228.2Avg total
111.0Scored
117.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)112.4111.0223.4+1.566%
Season at home (21)117.1110.6227.7+6.576%
Season away (20)107.5111.3218.8-3.855%
Last 10 (10)111.0117.2228.2-6.250%
Last 5 (5)112.2112.8225.0-0.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (21)113.9114.6228.5-0.857%
vs Weaker (9)107.6109.2216.8-1.756%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -1.2-1.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -1.2-1.2
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H24/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
W
59-56
59
56
+3
H27/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
61-52
61
52
+9
H29/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
57-60
57
60
-3
A31/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
W
69-63
69
63
+6
A01/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
67-49
67
49
+18
A03/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
L
48-52
48
52
-4
A05/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A07/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
64-66
64
66
-2
H08/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
63-56
63
56
+7
H11/01
NBA
115.3Avg total
59.7Scored
55.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.655.1112.7+2.660%-
Last 30 at home (13)58.255.1113.2+3.169%-
Last 30 away (17)57.255.1112.3+2.253%-
Last 10 (10)59.755.6115.3+4.170%-
Last 5 (5)58.653.8112.4+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)54.562.2116.8-7.80%-
vs Similar ◀ (21)58.553.9112.4+4.776%-
vs Weaker (5)56.454.4110.8+2.040%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
47-60
47
60
-13
A24/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
61-62
61
62
-1
A25/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
55-57
55
57
-2
A29/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H31/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
L
50-68
50
68
-18
H02/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
61-49
61
49
+12
H04/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A05/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
L
60-84
60
84
-24
H07/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
46-51
46
51
-5
A10/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
67-46
67
46
+21
A12/01
NBA
111.2Avg total
53.6Scored
57.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.356.8112.1-1.553%-
Last 30 at home (14)59.161.3120.4-2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)51.952.9104.9-1.050%-
Last 10 (10)53.657.6111.2-4.030%-
Last 5 (5)54.653.6108.2+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (21)55.457.2112.6-1.952%-
vs Weaker (9)55.155.9111.0-0.856%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 111.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.228.1
52.8%
54.5%56.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.211.9
32.9%
35.8%35.7
🏀 Free throws23.119.5
84.4%
78.1%19.5
They take 89.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 111.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.726.2
52.7%
54.5%52.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.913.9
32.4%
35.8%41.7
🏀 Free throws22.916.9
73.8%
78.1%16.9
They take 92.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Jan 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLWLWWLWWL
Milwaukee Bucks
WWLWWLWLLL
#10
League position
#1
+2.7
Net rating
-5.9
112.4
Offensive rating
106.2
109.7
Defensive rating
112.1
51.4%
Effective FG%
50.8%
56.9%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
11.7%
Turnover %
15.4%
25.9%
Off. rebound %
29.3%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.25
32.9%
3-point %
32.4%
57.0%
Assist %
58.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence112.4 · 106.2Defence109.7 · 112.1Shooting51.4% · 50.8%3-point %32.9% · 32.4%Ball care11.7% · 15.4%Off. rebounds25.9% · 29.3%Free throws0.26 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
7
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/01/23HOklahoma City Thunder112-111
08/01/23HBrooklyn Nets101-102
07/01/23APhoenix Suns104-96
05/01/23ALos Angeles Lakers109-112
03/01/23ALos Angeles Clippers110-100
01/01/23AUtah Jazz126-123
31/12/22ADenver Nuggets119-124
29/12/22HLos Angeles Lakers112-98
27/12/22HMinnesota Timberwolves113-110
24/12/22HIndiana Pacers108-111
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/01/23AAtlanta Hawks114-105
10/01/23ANew York Knicks111-107
07/01/23HCharlotte Hornets109-138
05/01/23AToronto Raptors104-101 OT
04/01/23HWashington Wizards123-113
02/01/23HWashington Wizards95-118
31/12/22HMinnesota Timberwolves123-114
29/12/22AChicago Bulls113-119 OT
25/12/22ABoston Celtics118-139
24/12/22ABrooklyn Nets100-118

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW52%
HomeLWWLW57%
AwayLWWLW48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422121
Win %52%57%48%
Points / game108.8109.7107.9
Allowed / game109.0109.4108.6
Point differential-0.2+0.3-0.7
Avg total217.8219.0216.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%10%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won59% (22)67% (12)50% (10)
Overtime %7%5%10%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW66%
HomeWWLWL76%
AwayLLWWW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games412120
Win %66%76%55%
Points / game112.4117.1107.5
Allowed / game111.0110.6111.3
Point differential+1.5+6.5-3.9
Avg total223.4227.7218.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%52%5%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)33% (3)83% (6)
Overtime %7%0%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics42301271%118.6112.6+6.0
2 Memphis Grizzlies41281368%116.8111.8+5.0
3 Denver Nuggets41281368%117.0113.2+3.8
4 Brooklyn Nets40271368%114.6110.6+4.0
5 Milwaukee Bucks41271466%112.4111.0+1.5
6 Cleveland Cavaliers42261662%111.5106.8+4.8
7 Philadelphia 76ers41251661%113.7110.0+3.7
8 New Orleans Pelicans42251760%117.4113.3+4.0
9 Sacramento Kings40221855%119.2117.0+2.1
10 New York Knicks42231955%114.1111.3+2.8
11 Dallas Mavericks42231955%112.1111.0+1.1
12 Indiana Pacers42231955%115.6115.7-0.1
13 Miami Heat42222052%108.8109.0-0.2
14 Los Angeles Clippers43222151%109.2110.0-0.8
15 Phoenix Suns43212249%112.7111.4+1.3
16 Golden State Warriors41202149%116.7117.7-1.0
17 Utah Jazz44212348%117.5116.8+0.7
18 Minnesota Timberwolves42202248%114.8115.5-0.7
19 Portland Trail Blazers40192148%112.0112.0+0.1
20 Los Angeles Lakers41192246%116.7117.8-1.2
21 Atlanta Hawks41192246%115.0116.3-1.3
22 Oklahoma City Thunder42192345%116.7116.5+0.2
23 Chicago Bulls42192345%114.2114.9-0.7
24 Toronto Raptors41182344%111.7111.4+0.3
25 Washington Wizards42182443%111.8113.1-1.4
26 Orlando Magic42162638%110.4114.2-3.8
27 San Antonio Spurs42132931%112.5121.0-8.5
28 Detroit Pistons45123327%112.4119.6-7.3
29 Charlotte Hornets42113126%112.1118.5-6.4
30 Houston Rockets41103124%109.2116.3-7.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat14313330108
Milwaukee Bucks23222829102
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