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Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 13 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 03:00
Scheduled
Position#8
Record6-4
FormLWLWW
Points / game114.8
Allowed / game114.7
vs
Position#10
Record7-5
FormLLWWW
Points / game115.2
Allowed / game110.8
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Golden State Warriors
12 Mar 2027
DEN v GSW
upcoming
26 Oct 2026
DEN114
GSW134
29 Mar 2026
DEN116
GSW93
07 Nov 2025
DEN129
GSW104
03 Dec 2024
DEN119
GSW115
25 Dec 2023
DEN120
GSW114
08 Nov 2023
DEN108
GSW105
02 Apr 2023
DEN112
GSW110
02 Feb 2023
DEN134
GSW117
24 Apr 2022
DEN126
GSW121
21 Apr 2022
DEN113
GSW118
10 Mar 2022
DEN102
GSW113
07 Mar 2022
DEN131
GSW124
14 Jan 2021
DEN114
GSW104
03 Mar 2020
DEN100
GSW116
15 Jan 2019
DEN111
GSW142
21 Oct 2018
DEN100
GSW98
03 Feb 2018
DEN115
GSW108
04 Nov 2017
DEN108
GSW127
13 Feb 2017
DEN132
GSW110
10 Nov 2016
DEN101
GSW125
14 Oct 2016
DEN128
GSW129
13 Jan 2016
DEN112
GSW110
22 Nov 2015
DEN105
GSW118
13 Mar 2015
DEN114
GSW103
16 Apr 2014
DEN112
GSW116
23 Dec 2013
DEN81
GSW89
30 Apr 2013
DEN107
GSW100
23 Apr 2013
DEN117
GSW131
20 Apr 2013
DEN97
GSW95
13 Jan 2013
DEN116
GSW105
23 Nov 2012
DEN102
GSW91
15 Oct 2012
DEN104
GSW98
09 Apr 2012
DEN123
GSW84
09 Feb 2012
DEN101
GSW109
11 Apr 2011
DEN134
GSW111
05 Jan 2010
DEN123
GSW122
01 Dec 2009
DEN135
GSW107
28 Mar 2009
DEN129
GSW116
13 Dec 2008
DEN123
GSW105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Golden State Warriors win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#20
L
97-109
97
109
-12
H04/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#20
W
117-106
117
106
+11
A07/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#24
W
133-128
133
128
+5
H12/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
L
110-122
110
122
-12
A15/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#13
W
121-106
121
106
+15
A17/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
L
84-96
84
96
-12
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
L
114-134
114
134
-20
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
W
104-91
104
91
+13
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
127-120
127
120
+7
A31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-36
26-27
25-25
20-21
24-31
41-28
30-22
22-25
29-27
30-41
40-26
34-34
24-24
31-34
26-38
29-26
36-22
26-33
26-28
33-23
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
229.5Avg total
114.8Scored
114.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)114.8114.7229.5+0.160%
Season at home (4)121.2126.5247.8-5.250%
Season away (6)110.5106.8217.3+3.767%
Last 10 (10)114.8114.7229.5+0.160%
Last 5 (5)114.0115.2229.2-1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)126.2123.2249.5+3.075%
vs Similar (15)111.0111.7222.7-0.753%
vs Weaker (11)129.6118.7248.4+10.991%
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Golden State WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#5
L
118-123
118
123
-5
A08/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
W
111-106
111
106
+5
H11/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#13
W
101-89
101
89
+12
A14/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#5
W
128-118
128
118
+10
H17/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#13
L
105-127
105
127
-22
A22/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#1
L
108-111
108
111
-3
H24/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
122-131
122
131
-9
A25/10
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#8
W
134-114
134
114
+20
A27/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
W
119-114
119
114
+5
A29/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#13
W
112-95
112
95
+17
H31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-36
19-21
36-29
32-37
24-25
37-31
28-25
22-25
29-29
21-34
22-13
29-13
35-26
32-32
38-33
23-27
33-34
19-32
16-36
37-25
34-33
22-27
34-24
18-27
25-22
29-35
38-45
30-29
28-32
32-24
40-28
34-30
30-23
34-25
29-33
26-33
15-38
38-15
32-27
27-15
228.6Avg total
115.8Scored
112.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)115.2110.8226.1+4.458%
Season at home (5)116.6105.6222.2+11.080%
Season away (7)114.3114.6228.9-0.343%
Last 10 (10)115.8112.8228.6+3.060%
Last 5 (5)119.0113.0232.0+6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)105.3116.6221.9-11.30%
vs Similar (13)112.5113.4225.9-0.846%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)119.8116.4236.2+3.470%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: +1.7+1.7
Denver NuggetsGolden State Warriors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#20
L
52-63
52
63
-11
H04/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#20
W
65-59
65
59
+6
A07/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#24
L
59-68
59
68
-9
H12/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
L
55-58
55
58
-3
A15/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#13
W
62-55
62
55
+7
A17/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
117.4Avg total
58.2Scored
59.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.258.9119.1+1.350%-
Last 30 at home (17)61.261.4122.6-0.235%-
Last 30 away (13)58.955.6114.5+3.369%-
Last 10 (10)58.259.2117.4-1.050%-
Last 5 (5)57.857.8115.6+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)62.559.8122.2+2.850%-
vs Similar (15)56.656.8113.4-0.253%-
vs Weaker (11)64.361.5125.7+2.845%-
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Golden State WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#5
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A08/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
W
61-56
61
56
+5
H11/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#13
L
50-63
50
63
-13
A14/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#5
W
67-58
67
58
+9
H17/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#13
L
52-66
52
66
-14
A22/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#1
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H24/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
54-57
54
57
-3
A25/10
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#8
W
60-56
60
56
+4
A27/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
W
64-48
64
48
+16
A29/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#13
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H31/10
NBA
114.1Avg total
56.7Scored
57.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.657.2112.8-1.533%-
Last 30 at home (12)58.756.9115.6+1.842%-
Last 30 away (18)53.657.3110.9-3.728%-
Last 10 (10)56.757.4114.1-0.740%-
Last 5 (5)57.454.8112.2+2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)52.156.6108.7-4.429%-
vs Similar (13)55.456.2111.6-0.823%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)58.458.8117.2-0.450%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 108.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.928.5
56.0%
54.0%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.710.4
32.8%
34.9%31.2
🏀 Free throws28.020.7
73.9%
76.4%20.7
They take 82.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Golden State Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Golden State Warriors: 112.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.4 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.823.2
51.8%
54.0%46.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.814.8
38.1%
34.9%44.4
🏀 Free throws28.322.1
78.1%
76.4%22.1
They take 83.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWLWLWLWWL
Golden State Warriors
WWWLLLWWWL
#8
League position
#10
-4.0
Net rating
+2.9
103.4
Offensive rating
102.7
107.4
Defensive rating
99.8
53.4%
Effective FG%
54.3%
53.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.6%
13.2%
Turnover %
16.5%
11.0%
Off. rebound %
7.4%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.34
32.8%
3-point %
38.1%
68.9%
Assist %
68.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence103.4 · 102.7Defence107.4 · 99.8Shooting53.4% · 54.3%3-point %32.8% · 38.1%Ball care13.2% · 16.5%Off. rebounds11.0% · 7.4%Free throws0.34 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Golden State Warriors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96
17/10/26ALos Angeles Lakers121-106
15/10/26ALos Angeles Clippers110-122
12/10/26HChicago Bulls133-128
07/10/26AUtah Jazz117-106
04/10/26HUtah Jazz97-109
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HLos Angeles Lakers112-95
29/10/26AMinnesota Timberwolves119-114
27/10/26ADenver Nuggets134-114
25/10/26APhoenix Suns122-131
24/10/26HMemphis Grizzlies108-111
22/10/26ALos Angeles Lakers105-127
17/10/26HPortland Trail Blazers128-118
14/10/26ALos Angeles Lakers101-89
11/10/26HSacramento Kings111-106
08/10/26APortland Trail Blazers118-123

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW60%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayLWLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%50%67%
Points / game114.8121.2110.5
Allowed / game114.7126.5106.8
Point differential+0.1-5.2+3.7
Avg total229.5247.8217.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %10%25%0%
Golden State Warriors
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW58%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayWLLWW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1257
Win %58%80%43%
Points / game115.2116.6114.3
Allowed / game110.8105.6114.6
Point differential+4.4+11.0-0.3
Avg total226.1222.2228.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%60%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)50% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Memphis Grizzlies98189%117.9108.2+9.7
2 Boston Celtics87188%125.5110.9+14.6
3 Detroit Pistons108280%113.3106.3+7.0
4 Houston Rockets97278%121.3110.9+10.4
5 Portland Trail Blazers75271%120.3114.3+6.0
6 Orlando Magic85362%118.9118.1+0.8
7 Atlanta Hawks106460%120.0119.2+0.8
8 Denver Nuggets106460%114.8114.7+0.1
9 Philadelphia 76ers106460%110.6111.0-0.4
10 Golden State Warriors127558%115.2110.8+4.4
11 Washington Wizards95456%112.7111.2+1.4
12 Minnesota Timberwolves116555%119.2114.2+5.0
13 Los Angeles Lakers116555%113.2112.6+0.5
14 San Antonio Spurs105550%115.5109.4+6.1
15 Cleveland Cavaliers84450%117.2118.2-1.0
16 Oklahoma City Thunder105550%109.0110.8-1.8
17 Miami Heat115645%122.7121.9+0.8
18 Toronto Raptors94544%120.4112.6+7.9
19 New Orleans Pelicans94544%115.4116.6-1.1
20 Utah Jazz94544%112.8115.6-2.8
21 Dallas Mavericks94544%113.6116.9-3.3
22 Charlotte Hornets94544%98.8105.8-7.0
23 Los Angeles Clippers83538%107.4110.5-3.1
24 Chicago Bulls114736%117.4122.7-5.4
25 Indiana Pacers93633%119.3119.0+0.3
26 Brooklyn Nets93633%116.4118.9-2.4
27 New York Knicks103730%106.9116.0-9.1
28 Milwaukee Bucks103730%111.4122.0-10.6
29 Phoenix Suns92722%110.3119.0-8.7
30 Sacramento Kings100100%106.5122.2-15.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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