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Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 08 Jan 2021
Tip-off: 03:00
Final 117-124 (OT)
28-22 24-21 26-33 31-33 8-15
Position#6
Record5-5
FormWLLWW
Points / game117.9
Allowed / game111.0
vs
Position#9
Record5-5
FormWLWLW
Points / game112.1
Allowed / game107.9
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2020-21
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks
04 Feb 2027
DEN v DAL
upcoming
24 Nov 2026
DEN v DAL
upcoming
25 Mar 2026
DEN142
DAL135
01 Dec 2025
DEN121
DAL131
22 Nov 2024
DEN120
DAL123
10 Nov 2024
DEN122
DAL120
18 Dec 2023
DEN130
DAL104
03 Nov 2023
DEN125
DAL114
15 Feb 2023
DEN118
DAL109
06 Dec 2022
DEN115
DAL116
29 Oct 2021
DEN106
DAL75
13 Mar 2021
DEN103
DAL116
07 Jan 2021
DEN117
DAL124
13 Apr 2020
DEN v DAL
upcoming
29 Oct 2019
DEN106
DAL109
14 Mar 2019
DEN100
DAL99
18 Dec 2018
DEN126
DAL118
27 Jan 2018
DEN91
DAL89
16 Jan 2018
DEN105
DAL102
06 Feb 2017
DEN110
DAL87
19 Dec 2016
DEN117
DAL107
28 Mar 2016
DEN88
DAL97
06 Mar 2016
DEN116
DAL114
10 Apr 2015
DEN143
DAL144
14 Jan 2015
DEN114
DAL107
05 Mar 2014
DEN115
DAL110
23 Nov 2013
DEN102
DAL100
04 Apr 2013
DEN95
DAL94
19 Mar 2012
DEN95
DAL112
08 Feb 2012
DEN95
DAL105
10 Feb 2011
DEN121
DAL120
03 Nov 2010
DEN101
DAL102
09 Feb 2010
DEN127
DAL91
27 Dec 2009
DEN96
DAL104
13 May 2009
DEN124
DAL110
05 May 2009
DEN117
DAL105
03 May 2009
DEN109
DAL95
13 Jan 2009
DEN99
DAL97
07 Nov 2008
DEN108
DAL105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#13
L
105-107
105
107
-2
91avg 106
A13/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
W
126-95
126
95
+31
136avg 106
H17/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
W
129-96
129
96
+33
126avg 106
H19/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
L
122-124 OT
122
124
-2
113avg 106
H24/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
108-121
108
121
-13
96avg 106
H26/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
124-111
124
111
+13
124avg 106
H29/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
L
115-125
115
125
-10
113avg 106
A30/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
103-106
103
106
-3
96avg 106
H02/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
124-109
124
109
+15
120avg 106
A04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
123-116
123
116
+7
116avg 106
H06/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-31
27-30
27-23
28-23
41-24
28-26
21-20
36-25
41-23
38-25
28-27
22-21
31-25
29-28
24-36
28-23
26-32
29-40
24-26
29-23
36-26
34-34
36-23
18-28
34-32
28-42
38-22
15-29
32-34
17-26
29-27
25-19
29-28
26-20
28-36
41-25
34-22
28-43
31-31
30-20
228.9Avg total
117.9Scored
111.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)117.9111.0228.9+6.950%
Season at home (7)119.3109.9229.1+9.457%
Season away (3)114.7113.7228.3+1.033%
Last 10 (10)117.9111.0228.9+6.950%
Last 5 (5)117.8113.4231.2+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)106.2108.2214.4-2.138%
vs Similar ◀ (12)111.8109.9221.7+1.850%
vs Weaker (5)121.6117.0238.6+4.660%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
W
112-102
112
102
+10
103avg 107
A13/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
W
128-112
128
112
+16
116avg 107
A15/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
L
127-129 OT
127
129
-2
116avg 107
H18/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
102-106
102
106
-4
86avg 107
A24/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
L
115-138
115
138
-23
98avg 107
A26/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
W
124-73
124
73
+51
124avg 107
A27/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
99-118
99
118
-19
82avg 107
H31/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
93-83
93
83
+10
86avg 107
H02/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
108-118
108
118
-10
95avg 107
A04/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
113-100
113
100
+13
113avg 107
A05/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-21
34-38
38-15
21-28
32-28
27-41
36-24
33-19
33-37
35-24
30-22
16-31
22-23
23-30
26-24
31-29
30-33
27-36
28-30
30-39
36-13
41-14
27-30
20-16
29-36
28-32
12-30
30-20
20-16
26-15
27-22
20-30
31-31
29-28
21-27
27-32
33-21
28-28
23-28
29-23
220.0Avg total
112.1Scored
107.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)112.1107.9220.0+4.250%
Season at home (3)106.3110.0216.3-3.733%
Season away (7)114.6107.0221.6+7.657%
Last 10 (10)112.1107.9220.0+4.250%
Last 5 (5)107.498.4205.8+9.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)136.0132.0268.0+4.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (23)114.9116.3231.2-1.543%
vs Weaker (6)115.5118.3233.8-2.833%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +5.0+5.0Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +3.6+3.6Q4: -1.0-1.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +5.0+5.0Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +3.6+3.6Q4: -1.0-1.0
Denver NuggetsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#13
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A13/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
W
69-50
69
50
+19
H17/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
W
79-48
79
48
+31
H19/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
60-53
60
53
+7
H24/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
55-72
55
72
-17
H26/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
70-60
70
60
+10
H29/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
L
62-74
62
74
-12
A30/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
49-60
49
60
-11
H02/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
55-48
55
48
+7
A04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
L
62-65
62
65
-3
H06/01
NBA
120.2Avg total
61.1Scored
59.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.258.3114.5-2.140%-
Last 30 at home (16)57.456.3113.8+1.150%-
Last 30 away (14)54.760.6115.3-5.929%-
Last 10 (10)61.159.1120.2+2.050%-
Last 5 (5)59.661.4121.0-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)53.559.0112.5-5.523%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)56.856.8113.6-0.150%-
vs Weaker (5)61.860.0121.8+1.860%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
53-59
53
59
-6
A13/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
59-69
59
69
-10
A15/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H18/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A24/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
L
57-69
57
69
-12
A26/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
W
77-27
77
27
+50
A27/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
57-68
57
68
-11
H31/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H02/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
60-59
60
59
+1
A04/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
61-49
61
49
+12
A05/01
NBA
112.8Avg total
58.3Scored
54.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.559.5118.0-1.043%-
Last 30 at home (13)59.260.6119.8-1.438%-
Last 30 away (17)57.958.6116.6-0.747%-
Last 10 (10)58.354.5112.8+3.850%-
Last 5 (5)60.246.8107.0+13.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)62.071.0133.0-9.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (23)58.059.0117.0-1.043%-
vs Weaker (6)59.859.7119.5+0.250%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 117.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.930.2
56.0%
52.8%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.812.7
37.6%
36.6%38.1
🏀 Free throws26.419.4
73.5%
77.7%19.4
They take 87.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 112.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.8 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.024.5
51.0%
52.8%49.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.314.6
36.2%
36.6%43.8
🏀 Free throws24.819.3
77.8%
77.7%19.3
They take 88.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Jan 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWLLWLLWWL
Dallas Mavericks
WLWLWLLLWW
#6
League position
#9
+6.7
Net rating
+4.1
113.9
Offensive rating
109.3
107.3
Defensive rating
105.3
56.2%
Effective FG%
52.5%
52.7%
Opp. effective FG%
51.9%
14.8%
Turnover %
11.9%
26.7%
Off. rebound %
19.0%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.28
37.6%
3-point %
36.2%
66.2%
Assist %
58.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence113.9 · 109.3Defence107.3 · 105.3Shooting56.2% · 52.5%3-point %37.6% · 36.2%Ball care14.8% · 11.9%Off. rebounds26.7% · 19.0%Free throws0.30 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Denver Nuggets wins
4
Dallas Mavericks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/01/21HMinnesota Timberwolves123-116
04/01/21AMinnesota Timberwolves124-109
02/01/21HPhoenix Suns103-106
30/12/20ASacramento Kings115-125
29/12/20HHouston Rockets124-111
26/12/20HLos Angeles Clippers108-121
24/12/20HSacramento Kings122-124 OT
19/12/20HPortland Trail Blazers129-96
17/12/20HPortland Trail Blazers126-95
13/12/20AGolden State Warriors105-107
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/01/21AHouston Rockets113-100
04/01/21AChicago Bulls108-118
02/01/21HMiami Heat93-83
31/12/20HCharlotte Hornets99-118
27/12/20ALos Angeles Clippers124-73
26/12/20ALos Angeles Lakers115-138
24/12/20APhoenix Suns102-106
18/12/20HMinnesota Timberwolves127-129 OT
15/12/20AMilwaukee Bucks128-112
13/12/20AMilwaukee Bucks112-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW50%
HomeLLWLW57%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1073
Win %50%57%33%
Points / game117.9119.3114.7
Allowed / game111.0109.9113.7
Point differential+6.9+9.4+1.0
Avg total228.9229.1228.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%43%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %10%14%0%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW50%
HomeLLW33%
AwayLLWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1037
Win %50%33%57%
Points / game112.1106.3114.6
Allowed / game107.9110.0107.0
Point differential+4.2-3.7+7.6
Avg total220.0216.3221.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%33%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %10%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1210283%113.1103.3+9.8
2 Philadelphia 76ers119282%113.5106.9+6.5
3 New York Knicks128467%102.999.6+3.3
4 Orlando Magic128467%111.5109.7+1.8
5 Brooklyn Nets117464%119.1109.3+9.8
6 Utah Jazz117464%111.2107.6+3.5
7 New Orleans Pelicans106460%109.5104.6+4.9
8 Indiana Pacers116555%112.3109.1+3.2
9 Boston Celtics116555%109.3111.5-2.2
10 Golden State Warriors116555%113.5116.4-2.8
11 Chicago Bulls137654%113.2115.9-2.7
12 Cleveland Cavaliers137654%101.4104.5-3.2
13 Denver Nuggets105550%117.9111.0+6.9
14 Dallas Mavericks105550%112.1107.9+4.2
15 Houston Rockets105550%112.4110.4+2.0
16 Phoenix Suns126650%107.9106.2+1.7
17 Atlanta Hawks126650%114.4112.9+1.5
18 Los Angeles Clippers126650%107.2110.0-2.8
19 Sacramento Kings126650%112.0116.7-4.7
20 Milwaukee Bucks115645%120.8114.5+6.3
21 Miami Heat94544%105.4108.0-2.6
22 Memphis Grizzlies125742%109.3109.2+0.1
23 Oklahoma City Thunder104640%104.1111.2-7.1
24 Portland Trail Blazers114736%111.4118.6-7.3
25 Charlotte Hornets124833%108.5111.5-3.0
26 Toronto Raptors103730%107.9111.0-3.1
27 San Antonio Spurs103730%109.2116.5-7.3
28 Minnesota Timberwolves103730%109.1119.7-10.6
29 Washington Wizards113827%115.0117.7-2.7
30 Detroit Pistons123925%105.7109.9-4.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Denver Nuggets282426318117
Dallas Mavericks2221333315124
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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