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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 123-114
Projected total 237.0
Scheduled
Position#15
Record7-6
FormLWWWW
Points / game118.7
Allowed / game119.8
Miami Heat
USA
Vs
75%
25%
■ MIA 75%■ MIL 25%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
3.4/10
Below normal
3.9/10
Below normal
Milwaukee Bucks
USA
Position#30
Record1-12
FormLLLLL
Points / game106.2
Allowed / game120.2
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Miami Heat host Milwaukee Bucks on 18 November 2026 in the NBA, with the model favouring the Heat at 75% versus 25% for the Bucks, a reflection of Miami's 5-6 record, 115.7 points scored and 120.0 points allowed per game, and a 17th-place league position compared to Milwaukee's 1-11 record, 106.8 points scored and 121.3 allowed per game, 30th place; the Heat's home form is 1-3 with 117.8 points for and 124.2 against, while the Bucks have gone 0-5 on the road, scoring 103.8 and conceding 118.6, and have lost all five of their most recent outings, including defeats to the Lakers, Knicks and Celtics, whereas Miami has won three of its last five, with victories over Utah and Sacramento and a loss to Golden State; historically the Bucks lead the series 7-3, though Miami last beat Milwaukee 112-105 on 12 March 2026; Pythia projects a 123-114 win for Miami, 237 total points, a 5% chance of overtime, and a 75% probability that Miami covers the home line. The game will hinge on the Heat's ability to outscore the Bucks in a contest where the model sees a clear advantage for the visitors.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat win
75.3%fair 1.33
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks win
24.7%fair 4.05
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 112
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 112
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 112
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 112
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 112
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 112
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 112
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
115-109
115
109
+6
99avg 112
A11/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
133-121
133
121
+12
136avg 112
H14/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
W
137-117
137
117
+20
no box
H15/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
34-30
34-29
23-22
23-27
29-25
35-29
28-18
23-37
29-27
25-30
38-34
41-30
37-39
31-21
35-26
34-31
240.0Avg total
121.6Scored
118.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)118.7119.8238.5-1.254%
Season at home (6)123.5122.5246.0+1.050%
Season away (7)114.6117.6232.1-3.057%
Last 10 (10)121.6118.4240.0+3.270%
Last 5 (5)119.8115.0234.8+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)115.9131.0246.9-15.114%
vs Similar (15)122.1122.9245.1-0.840%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)122.2117.6239.9+4.675%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
110-102
110
102
+8
103avg 99
H27/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
100-132
100
132
-32
74avg 99
H29/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
111-136
111
136
-25
88avg 99
H01/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
100-112
100
112
-12
84avg 99
A03/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
102-109
102
109
-7
92avg 99
A05/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
L
107-121
107
121
-14
94avg 99
H07/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
97-117
97
117
-20
79avg 99
H09/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#16
L
85-117
85
117
-32
62avg 99
A11/11
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
112-123
112
123
-11
102avg 99
H12/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
L
99-107
99
107
-8
79avg 99
A14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-29
19-32
34-24
26-17
21-23
14-34
34-38
31-37
25-24
21-48
30-37
35-27
18-29
29-19
29-32
24-32
14-28
27-34
38-25
23-22
29-24
31-27
27-38
20-32
27-25
18-33
29-33
23-26
21-26
13-32
38-27
13-32
28-30
22-31
23-33
39-29
15-23
22-29
35-32
27-23
219.9Avg total
102.3Scored
117.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)106.2120.2226.4-14.18%
Season at home (7)108.9123.3232.1-14.414%
Season away (6)103.0116.7219.7-13.70%
Last 10 (10)102.3117.6219.9-15.310%
Last 5 (5)100.0117.0217.0-17.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)104.9122.1227.0-17.39%
vs Similar (7)117.7114.4232.1+3.357%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%8%11%1%1901%1952%2003%2054%2106%2158%22010%22511%23011%23510%2409%2457%2505%2554%2603%2652%2701%2751%2800%2850%290
1%1953%2056%21510%22511%2359%2455%2553%2651%2750%285
Pythia expects about 237 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 235-239 (11%).
Over/Under 220
Over 220
82.3%
Under 220
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 225
Over 225
74.1%
Under 225
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 230
Over 230
64.2%
Under 230
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Miami Heat total 109
Over 109
89.3%
Under 109
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miami Heat total 113
Over 113
81.5%
Under 113
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miami Heat total 117
Over 117
70.7%
Under 117
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milwaukee Bucks total 107.5
Over 107.5
70.0%
Under 107.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milwaukee Bucks total 111.5
Over 111.5
57.2%
Under 111.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milwaukee Bucks total 115.5
Over 115.5
43.8%
Under 115.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%4%7%9%0%-300%-271%-241%-211%-182%-153%-125%-96%-66%-35%+09%+39%+69%+98%+127%+157%+185%+215%+243%+273%+302%+331%+361%+391%+42
0%-301%-241%-183%-126%-65%+09%+68%+127%+185%+243%+301%+361%+42
Margin from Miami Heat's side (positive = Miami Heat win). Pythia's expected margin is +9.1; Miami Heat win by 1+ in 68% of simulations.
Spread Miami Heat -3
MIA -3
70.5%
MIL +3
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
MIA
No market prices yet.
MIL
No market prices yet.
Spread Miami Heat 0
MIA 0
75.3%
MIL 0
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
MIA
No market prices yet.
MIL
No market prices yet.
Spread Miami Heat +3
MIA +3
80.3%
MIL -3
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
MIA
No market prices yet.
MIL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-13-6+0+6+13Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -10.3-10.3Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.6-1.6
-13-6+0+6+13Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -10.3-10.3Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.6-1.6
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
54-57
54
57
-3
H14/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
W
68-60
68
60
+8
H15/11
NBA
121.9Avg total
62.0Scored
59.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.762.7123.4-2.040%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.962.9123.9-2.043%-
Last 30 away (16)60.462.5122.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)62.059.9121.9+2.150%-
Last 5 (5)61.456.6118.0+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)60.068.9128.9-8.914%-
vs Similar (15)58.360.9119.3-2.640%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)65.660.6126.2+5.062%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#21
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H27/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
35-57
35
57
-22
H29/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
46-72
46
72
-26
H01/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
47-48
47
48
-1
A03/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A05/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
60-51
60
51
+9
H07/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
45-58
45
58
-13
H09/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#16
L
34-58
34
58
-24
A11/11
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H12/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A14/11
NBA
102.5Avg total
44.5Scored
58.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.259.7111.0-8.530%-
Last 30 at home (15)53.860.2114.0-6.440%-
Last 30 away (15)48.759.3107.9-10.620%-
Last 10 (10)44.558.0102.5-13.510%-
Last 5 (5)45.256.0101.2-10.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)49.360.5109.8-11.322%-
vs Similar (7)57.757.1114.9+0.657%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.129.7
55.9%
54.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.813.6
35.1%
35.1%40.8
🏀 Free throws25.118.7
74.5%
77.2%18.7
They take 91.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 113.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers49.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.824.6
56.2%
54.0%49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.416.4
37.8%
35.1%49.2
🏀 Free throws20.914.7
70.3%
77.2%14.7
They take 87.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWWLWLWWL
Milwaukee Bucks
LLLLLLLLLW
#15
League position
#30
-0.5
Net rating
-6.8
111.7
Offensive rating
105.9
112.2
Defensive rating
112.7
54.5%
Effective FG%
56.4%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
55.4%
11.9%
Turnover %
15.8%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
15.2%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.24
35.1%
3-point %
37.8%
66.3%
Assist %
66.1%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence111.7 · 105.9Defence112.2 · 112.7Shooting54.5% · 56.4%3-point %35.1% · 37.8%Ball care11.9% · 15.8%Off. rebounds19.3% · 15.2%Free throws0.27 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)70% · 10%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
7
Milwaukee Bucks wins
DateGameScore
12/03/26Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks112-105
25/02/26Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat128-117
27/11/25Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks106-103
06/04/25Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks115-121 OT
23/02/25Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat120-113
24/01/25Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat125-96
27/11/24Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks103-106
14/02/24Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat97-123
29/11/23Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks124-131
31/10/23Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat122-114
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HDetroit Pistons137-117
14/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers133-121
11/11/26AUtah Jazz115-109
09/11/26ASacramento Kings114-108
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
Milwaukee Buckslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AOrlando Magic99-107
12/11/26HLos Angeles Lakers112-123
11/11/26ANew York Knicks85-117
09/11/26HBoston Celtics97-117
07/11/26HToronto Raptors107-121
05/11/26ABoston Celtics102-109
03/11/26AMinnesota Timberwolves100-112
01/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers111-136
29/10/26HHouston Rockets100-132
27/10/26HIndiana Pacers110-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW54%
HomeLLWWW50%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %54%50%57%
Points / game118.7123.5114.6
Allowed / game119.8122.5117.6
Point differential-1.2+1.0-3.0
Avg total238.5246.0232.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%50%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %8%0%14%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL8%
HomeLLLLL14%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %8%14%0%
Points / game106.2108.9103.0
Allowed / game120.2123.3116.7
Point differential-14.1-14.4-13.7
Avg total226.4232.1219.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
5 Philadelphia 76ers1310377%111.2109.4+1.8
6 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves139469%118.3106.8+11.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies139469%120.6111.7+8.9
9 Detroit Pistons128467%115.7110.2+5.4
10 Denver Nuggets117464%114.6112.8+1.8
11 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
12 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
13 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks137654%113.5113.3+0.2
15 Miami Heat137654%118.7119.8-1.2
16 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
17 Cleveland Cavaliers147750%117.5115.9+1.6
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers135838%111.2113.2-2.1
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans1441029%115.9124.9-9.1
25 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
26 Brooklyn Nets123925%110.2116.4-6.2
27 Chicago Bulls123925%114.6125.9-11.3
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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