PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 14 Jan 2018
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 97-79
21-23 20-20 30-16 26-20
Position#16
Record24-17
FormWWWWW
Points / game101.0
Allowed / game102.0
vs
Position#15
Record22-19
FormLWLWL
Points / game105.7
Allowed / game106.4
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2017-18
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#27
W
113-101
113
101
+12
116avg 95
H23/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#7
L
94-109
94
109
-15
79avg 95
H24/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
107-89
107
89
+18
100avg 95
H27/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#23
L
87-111
87
111
-24
64avg 95
H30/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
117-111
117
111
+6
109avg 95
A31/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
111-104
111
104
+7
109avg 95
H04/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#22
W
107-103 OT
107
103
+4
95avg 95
H06/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
103-102
103
102
+1
92avg 95
H07/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
W
90-89
90
89
+1
82avg 95
A10/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#8
W
114-106
114
106
+8
108avg 95
A11/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-23
21-30
29-20
31-28
28-27
25-29
16-27
25-26
21-18
22-31
25-19
39-21
20-24
19-35
21-36
27-16
21-32
29-34
36-26
31-19
24-29
32-23
25-29
30-23
26-25
25-20
24-26
22-26
27-22
22-25
25-28
29-27
22-21
29-20
21-23
18-25
38-26
20-21
26-31
30-28
206.8Avg total
104.3Scored
102.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)101.0102.0202.9-1.059%
Season at home (20)101.2104.0205.2-2.855%
Season away (21)100.7100.1200.8+0.662%
Last 10 (10)104.3102.5206.8+1.880%
Last 5 (5)105.0100.8205.8+4.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)92.5106.0198.5-13.550%
vs Similar ◀ (23)99.2101.3200.5-2.161%
vs Weaker (5)107.097.0204.0+10.080%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#25
L
106-115
106
115
-9
98avg 95
H27/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#14
W
102-96
102
96
+6
100avg 95
H29/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
97-95
97
95
+2
90avg 95
A30/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
127-131 OT
127
131
-4
119avg 95
A02/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#8
W
122-101
122
101
+21
126avg 95
H04/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
110-129
110
129
-19
102avg 95
H06/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
W
110-103
110
103
+7
104avg 95
A07/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#8
L
96-109
96
109
-13
85avg 95
A09/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
110-103
110
103
+7
104avg 95
H11/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
94-108
94
108
-14
80avg 95
H13/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-22
22-34
30-27
23-32
16-26
30-30
29-28
27-12
38-18
20-26
15-23
24-28
30-35
26-25
28-28
30-26
34-26
28-26
31-24
29-25
24-33
35-28
19-43
32-25
24-32
29-21
29-32
28-18
16-37
22-27
27-24
31-21
30-29
23-17
36-23
21-34
27-36
22-27
33-17
12-28
216.4Avg total
107.4Scored
109.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (41)105.7106.4212.0-0.754%
Season at home (22)104.9104.8209.7+0.164%
Season away (19)106.6108.2214.7-1.642%
Last 10 (10)107.4109.0216.4-1.650%
Last 5 (5)104.0110.4214.4-6.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)110.5120.8231.2-10.20%
vs Similar ◀ (19)103.9103.7207.6+0.263%
vs Weaker (7)109.9104.9214.7+5.071%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: -2.4-2.4Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: +4.3+4.3Q4: +0.8+0.8
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: -2.4-2.4Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: +4.3+4.3Q4: +0.8+0.8
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#27
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H23/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#7
L
53-56
53
56
-3
H24/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H27/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#23
L
39-59
39
59
-20
H30/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
L
50-66
50
66
-16
A31/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
56-52
56
52
+4
H04/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#22
W
51-45
51
45
+6
H06/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
49-47
49
47
+2
H07/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
W
51-41
51
41
+10
A10/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#8
W
58-47
58
47
+11
A11/01
NBA
101.8Avg total
50.3Scored
51.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.651.3101.9-0.853%-
Last 30 at home (14)51.351.6102.9-0.350%-
Last 30 away (16)49.951.1101.1-1.256%-
Last 10 (10)50.351.5101.8-1.250%-
Last 5 (5)53.046.499.4+6.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)55.551.5107.0+4.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (23)50.751.3102.0-0.657%-
vs Weaker (5)48.051.499.4-3.440%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#25
L
53-56
53
56
-3
H27/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#14
L
46-56
46
56
-10
H29/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
58-44
58
44
+14
A30/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
56-60
56
60
-4
A02/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#8
W
62-52
62
52
+10
H04/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
59-61
59
61
-2
H06/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A07/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#8
L
38-64
38
64
-26
A09/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
53-46
53
46
+7
H11/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
49-63
49
63
-14
H13/01
NBA
108.2Avg total
52.7Scored
55.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.153.7107.8+0.543%-
Last 30 at home (17)54.253.6107.8+0.641%-
Last 30 away (13)54.053.8107.8+0.246%-
Last 10 (10)52.755.5108.2-2.830%-
Last 5 (5)50.457.4107.8-7.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)54.859.8114.5-5.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)52.853.3106.1-0.547%-
vs Weaker (7)57.451.3108.7+6.157%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 104.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.8 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 106.1 points a game
55%
30%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.729.4
51.9%
51.0%58.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.710.7
36.0%
36.1%32.1
🏀 Free throws16.913.4
79.3%
76.5%13.4
They take 86.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 34%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 107.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.2 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 106.1 points a game
55%
30%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.732.1
55.6%
51.0%64.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.28.2
35.3%
36.1%24.6
🏀 Free throws23.618.6
78.8%
76.5%18.6
They take 80.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 29% of their shots are threes (league average: 34%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Jan 2018 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWWWWLWLW
Milwaukee Bucks
LWLWLWLWWL
#16
League position
#15
+1.9
Net rating
-1.6
109.8
Offensive rating
109.8
107.9
Defensive rating
111.4
52.6%
Effective FG%
54.9%
53.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
12.7%
Turnover %
14.4%
25.8%
Off. rebound %
20.5%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.29
36.0%
3-point %
35.3%
54.4%
Assist %
58.8%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.8 · 109.8Defence107.9 · 111.4Shooting52.6% · 54.9%3-point %36.0% · 35.3%Ball care12.7% · 14.4%Off. rebounds25.8% · 20.5%Free throws0.20 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/01/18AIndiana Pacers114-106
10/01/18AToronto Raptors90-89
07/01/18HUtah Jazz103-102
06/01/18HNew York Knicks107-103 OT
04/01/18HDetroit Pistons111-104
31/12/17AOrlando Magic117-111
30/12/17HBrooklyn Nets87-111
27/12/17HOrlando Magic107-89
24/12/17HNew Orleans Pelicans94-109
23/12/17HDallas Mavericks113-101
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/18HGolden State Warriors94-108
11/01/18HOrlando Magic110-103
09/01/18AIndiana Pacers96-109
07/01/18AWashington Wizards110-103
06/01/18HToronto Raptors110-129
04/01/18HIndiana Pacers122-101
02/01/18AToronto Raptors127-131 OT
30/12/17AOklahoma City Thunder97-95
29/12/17HMinnesota Timberwolves102-96
27/12/17HChicago Bulls106-115

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2017-18
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW59%
HomeWLWWW55%
AwayLWWWW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games412021
Win %59%55%62%
Points / game101.0101.2100.7
Allowed / game102.0104.0100.1
Point differential-1.0-2.8+0.6
Avg total202.9205.2200.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%15%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won82% (11)83% (6)80% (5)
Overtime %5%10%0%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2017-18
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL54%
HomeWWLWL64%
AwayLWLWL42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games412219
Win %54%64%42%
Points / game105.7104.9106.6
Allowed / game106.4104.8108.2
Point differential-0.7+0.1-1.6
Avg total212.0209.7214.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%9%16%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)100% (6)17% (6)
Overtime %5%0%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors4435980%115.8106.7+9.1
2 Boston Celtics44341077%103.097.7+5.3
3 Houston Rockets41301173%115.0106.9+8.0
4 Toronto Raptors41291271%112.4104.3+8.1
5 San Antonio Spurs44291566%101.497.8+3.6
6 Minnesota Timberwolves44281664%108.5104.7+3.8
7 Cleveland Cavaliers42261662%109.5108.5+1.0
8 Miami Heat41241759%101.0102.0-1.0
9 Washington Wizards43251858%107.1104.7+2.5
10 Detroit Pistons41221954%102.3101.5+0.8
11 Milwaukee Bucks41221954%105.7106.4-0.7
12 Oklahoma City Thunder43232053%104.3101.3+3.0
13 Portland Trail Blazers42222052%103.7102.8+0.9
14 Indiana Pacers42222052%107.0106.5+0.5
15 New Orleans Pelicans41212051%110.8110.9-0.1
16 Denver Nuggets43222151%106.2105.6+0.6
17 Los Angeles Clippers42212150%107.3106.8+0.5
18 Philadelphia 76ers39192049%108.4108.1+0.3
19 New York Knicks42192345%103.7104.7-1.0
20 Utah Jazz42172540%100.7101.7-1.0
21 Charlotte Hornets41162539%104.7105.6-1.0
22 Brooklyn Nets43162737%106.2109.1-2.9
23 Chicago Bulls43162737%102.4108.3-5.9
24 Phoenix Suns43162737%105.5112.1-6.7
25 Los Angeles Lakers42152736%106.5110.2-3.7
26 Dallas Mavericks44152934%102.5104.5-2.0
27 Memphis Grizzlies41132832%98.6102.0-3.4
28 Sacramento Kings42132931%98.0106.8-8.9
29 Orlando Magic43123128%105.2111.1-5.9
30 Atlanta Hawks42113126%104.0108.3-4.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat2120302697
Milwaukee Bucks2320162079
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.