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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 29 May 2021
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 103-120
26-22 38-35 21-34 18-29
Position#15
Record41-36
FormLWLLL
Points / game107.5
Allowed / game108.5
vs
Position#5
Record49-29
FormWLWWW
Points / game119.6
Allowed / game113.9
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2020-21
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#9
L
113-127
113
127
-14
109avg 102
H05/05
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
121-112
121
112
+9
112avg 102
H08/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
130-124
130
124
+6
129avg 102
A09/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
129-121
129
121
+8
128avg 102
A11/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
106-94
106
94
+12
107avg 102
H13/05
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
108-122
108
122
-14
92avg 102
A16/05
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
W
120-107
120
107
+13
119avg 102
A17/05
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
107-109 OT
107
109
-2
91avg 102
A22/05
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
98-132
98
132
-34
81avg 102
A24/05
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
84-113
84
113
-29
71avg 102
H27/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
39-30
15-33
23-35
36-29
28-32
31-22
30-24
32-34
36-23
43-30
26-31
25-40
28-28
34-28
31-23
36-42
38-22
22-19
29-26
17-27
28-44
23-26
30-29
27-23
32-13
37-34
26-24
25-36
24-22
26-31
28-27
21-19
20-46
31-32
27-29
20-25
14-26
22-23
24-37
24-27
227.7Avg total
111.6Scored
116.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (77)107.5108.5216.0-0.953%
Season at home (38)107.9108.8216.8-0.955%
Season away (39)107.1108.1215.2-1.051%
Last 10 (10)111.6116.1227.7-4.550%
Last 5 (5)103.4116.6220.0-13.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)100.5113.2213.8-12.825%
vs Similar (17)111.0108.1219.1+2.971%
vs Weaker (5)116.8106.0222.8+10.880%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#18
W
135-134
135
134
+1
133avg 111
H06/05
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
141-133
141
133
+8
141avg 111
H08/05
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
L
125-146
125
146
-21
111avg 111
A11/05
NBA
Orlando Magic
#28
W
114-102
114
102
+12
100avg 111
H12/05
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
142-133
142
133
+9
144avg 111
A13/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
122-108
122
108
+14
122avg 111
H16/05
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
112-118
112
118
-6
91avg 111
A17/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
109-107 OT
109
107
+2
99avg 111
H22/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
132-98
132
98
+34
138avg 111
H24/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
113-84
113
84
+29
111avg 111
A27/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-37
42-34
32-24
32-39
34-34
30-29
43-29
34-41
36-45
28-42
29-26
32-33
29-22
30-26
20-23
35-31
39-38
30-28
40-30
33-37
44-28
26-23
29-30
23-27
23-33
31-22
31-36
27-27
22-24
31-26
27-28
19-21
46-20
32-31
29-27
25-20
26-14
23-22
37-24
27-24
240.8Avg total
124.5Scored
116.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (78)119.6113.9233.5+5.863%
Season at home (40)120.1112.9233.0+7.270%
Season away (38)119.1114.9234.0+4.355%
Last 10 (10)124.5116.3240.8+8.280%
Last 5 (5)117.6103.0220.6+14.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)116.6113.3229.9+3.360%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)123.4115.7239.1+7.770%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +4.0+4.0Q4Q4: -3.9-3.9Q4: -1.3-1.3
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +4.0+4.0Q4Q4: -3.9-3.9Q4: -1.3-1.3
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#9
L
54-63
54
63
-9
H05/05
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H08/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
79-53
79
53
+26
A09/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
62-56
62
56
+6
A11/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
60-41
60
41
+19
H13/05
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
51-70
51
70
-19
A16/05
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
W
69-47
69
47
+22
A17/05
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
50-53
50
53
-3
A22/05
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
51-78
51
78
-27
A24/05
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
36-49
36
49
-13
H27/05
NBA
113.5Avg total
57.1Scored
56.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.155.7111.8+0.447%-
Last 30 at home (13)56.453.5109.9+2.862%-
Last 30 away (17)55.957.4113.2-1.535%-
Last 10 (10)57.156.4113.5+0.750%-
Last 5 (5)51.459.4110.8-8.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)51.458.4109.8-7.025%-
vs Similar (17)56.754.1110.8+2.653%-
vs Weaker (5)61.656.8118.4+4.860%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#18
D
71-71
71
71
+0
H06/05
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
64-63
64
63
+1
H08/05
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
L
64-87
64
87
-23
A11/05
NBA
Orlando Magic
#28
W
59-48
59
48
+11
H12/05
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
69-66
69
66
+3
A13/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
70-51
70
51
+19
H16/05
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
54-55
54
55
-1
A17/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
53-50
53
50
+3
H22/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
78-51
78
51
+27
H24/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
49-36
49
36
+13
A27/05
NBA
120.9Avg total
63.1Scored
57.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.454.7115.1+5.873%-
Last 30 at home (13)62.957.0119.9+5.969%-
Last 30 away (17)58.552.9111.4+5.676%-
Last 10 (10)63.157.8120.9+5.370%-
Last 5 (5)60.848.6109.4+12.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)59.252.8112.0+6.480%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)61.055.6116.7+5.470%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 111.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.4 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.525.9
52.3%
52.8%51.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.614.8
40.4%
36.6%44.4
🏀 Free throws19.815.4
77.8%
77.7%15.4
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 124.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.2 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.932.4
59.0%
52.8%64.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.913.4
35.4%
36.6%40.2
🏀 Free throws25.919.5
75.3%
77.7%19.5
They take 92.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 May 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLLWLWWWWL
Milwaukee Bucks
WWWLWWWLWW
#15
League position
#5
-4.5
Net rating
+7.7
110.8
Offensive rating
117.6
115.2
Defensive rating
109.8
55.9%
Effective FG%
56.6%
57.2%
Opp. effective FG%
53.6%
13.4%
Turnover %
12.6%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
26.2%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.28
40.4%
3-point %
35.4%
62.9%
Assist %
56.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence110.8 · 117.6Defence115.2 · 109.8Shooting55.9% · 56.6%3-point %40.4% · 35.4%Ball care13.4% · 12.6%Off. rebounds19.3% · 26.2%Free throws0.23 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/05/21HMilwaukee Bucks84-113
24/05/21AMilwaukee Bucks98-132
22/05/21AMilwaukee Bucks107-109 OT
17/05/21ADetroit Pistons120-107
16/05/21AMilwaukee Bucks108-122
13/05/21HPhiladelphia 76ers106-94
11/05/21ABoston Celtics129-121
09/05/21ABoston Celtics130-124
08/05/21HMinnesota Timberwolves121-112
05/05/21HDallas Mavericks113-127
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/05/21AMiami Heat113-84
24/05/21HMiami Heat132-98
22/05/21HMiami Heat109-107 OT
17/05/21AChicago Bulls112-118
16/05/21HMiami Heat122-108
13/05/21AIndiana Pacers142-133
12/05/21HOrlando Magic114-102
11/05/21ASan Antonio Spurs125-146
08/05/21HHouston Rockets141-133
06/05/21HWashington Wizards135-134

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL53%
HomeWLWWL55%
AwayWLWLL51%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games773839
Win %53%55%51%
Points / game107.5107.9107.1
Allowed / game108.5108.8108.1
Point differential-0.9-0.9-1.0
Avg total216.0216.8215.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%24%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (19)50% (10)44% (9)
Overtime %6%5%8%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW63%
HomeWWWWW70%
AwayWLWLW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games784038
Win %63%70%55%
Points / game119.6120.1119.1
Allowed / game113.9112.9114.9
Point differential+5.8+7.2+4.3
Avg total233.5233.0234.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%42%37%
Close games (≤5 pts) won59% (17)88% (8)33% (9)
Overtime %4%5%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Jazz77562173%116.7107.3+9.5
2 Philadelphia 76ers76532370%113.8107.9+5.9
3 Brooklyn Nets77522568%118.5113.5+4.9
4 Phoenix Suns79522766%114.1109.4+4.7
5 Denver Nuggets78512765%115.4109.9+5.5
6 Milwaukee Bucks78492963%119.6113.9+5.8
7 Los Angeles Clippers78483062%113.4108.4+5.0
8 Los Angeles Lakers80493161%109.3106.1+3.2
9 Dallas Mavericks78463259%113.0110.5+2.5
10 New York Knicks79453457%106.4103.8+2.6
11 Atlanta Hawks79453457%113.2111.2+2.0
12 Portland Trail Blazers79443556%115.6114.8+0.8
13 Memphis Grizzlies80443655%113.6112.2+1.4
14 Golden State Warriors77413653%113.4112.4+1.0
15 Miami Heat77413653%107.5108.5-0.9
16 Boston Celtics78384049%112.1111.3+0.8
17 Washington Wizards79364346%115.8118.0-2.1
18 Indiana Pacers77354245%115.3115.6-0.3
19 Chicago Bulls76344245%110.6111.2-0.6
20 New Orleans Pelicans74334145%114.8114.6+0.2
21 Charlotte Hornets77344344%109.7112.0-2.3
22 San Antonio Spurs76334343%110.6112.9-2.3
23 Sacramento Kings76334343%113.6117.3-3.7
24 Toronto Raptors75294639%111.2111.6-0.4
25 Minnesota Timberwolves75245132%112.1117.7-5.6
26 Cleveland Cavaliers76245232%103.6112.0-8.4
27 Oklahoma City Thunder75235231%105.2115.5-10.3
28 Orlando Magic76235330%104.6113.5-8.9
29 Detroit Pistons76225429%105.9110.1-4.1
30 Houston Rockets76205626%109.1116.0-6.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat26382118103
Milwaukee Bucks22353429120
← all games of the day
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