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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 09 Dec 2021
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 113-104
24-26 20-25 39-26 30-27
Position#4
Record14-11
FormLLWLL
Points / game107.0
Allowed / game104.5
vs
Position#5
Record16-9
FormWWLWW
Points / game110.5
Allowed / game106.3
USANBA· FTX Arena
NBA2021-22
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#21
W
112-97
112
97
+15
109avg 101
H19/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#21
L
100-103
100
103
-3
90avg 101
A21/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#28
W
100-92
100
92
+8
98avg 101
A24/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
L
101-113
101
113
-12
96avg 101
A25/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
107-104
107
104
+3
94avg 101
A28/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#11
L
111-120
111
120
-9
104avg 101
H30/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#14
L
85-111
85
111
-26
65avg 101
H02/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
113-104
113
104
+9
108avg 101
A04/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
102-124
102
124
-22
94avg 101
A05/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
90-105
90
105
-15
86avg 101
H07/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-19
26-21
36-30
29-27
25-26
18-15
32-30
25-32
20-25
26-28
21-23
33-16
27-30
35-24
20-32
19-27
27-20
22-26
23-28
35-30
23-32
20-31
35-32
33-25
16-31
27-30
20-26
22-24
32-25
30-30
30-26
21-23
23-34
29-35
24-36
26-19
25-34
24-26
18-22
23-23
209.4Avg total
102.1Scored
107.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)107.0104.5211.5+2.556%
Season at home (10)106.5102.5209.0+4.060%
Season away (15)107.3105.9213.2+1.553%
Last 10 (10)102.1107.3209.4-5.240%
Last 5 (5)100.2112.8213.0-12.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)98.0118.5216.5-20.50%
vs Similar ◀ (14)107.8107.8215.6+0.050%
vs Weaker (12)107.2100.9208.1+6.267%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
W
96-89
96
89
+7
90avg 108
H20/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#29
W
117-108
117
108
+9
117avg 108
H21/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#29
W
123-92
123
92
+31
119avg 108
H23/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#28
W
114-93
114
93
+21
113avg 108
H25/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#11
W
120-109
120
109
+11
123avg 108
A27/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
118-100
118
100
+18
117avg 108
A28/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
127-125
127
125
+2
120avg 108
H02/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#10
L
93-97
93
97
-4
78avg 108
A03/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#4
W
124-102
124
102
+22
123avg 108
H05/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#14
W
112-104
112
104
+8
107avg 108
H07/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-24
24-23
22-21
16-21
36-24
26-26
34-21
21-37
36-16
41-20
28-20
18-36
32-26
32-26
24-22
26-19
27-16
31-31
32-26
30-36
26-26
26-21
39-27
27-26
25-41
35-27
37-27
30-30
23-26
17-22
28-25
25-24
34-23
35-29
36-24
19-26
24-24
32-26
32-28
24-26
216.3Avg total
114.4Scored
101.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)110.5106.3216.8+4.264%
Season at home (13)111.0104.2215.2+6.869%
Season away (12)110.0108.7218.7+1.358%
Last 10 (10)114.4101.9216.3+12.590%
Last 5 (5)114.8105.6220.4+9.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (21)110.5110.1220.7+0.457%
vs Weaker (9)111.998.1210.0+13.889%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -3.7-3.7Q1: +5.1+5.1Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +7.1+7.1Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: -4.5-4.5
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -3.7-3.7Q1: +5.1+5.1Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +7.1+7.1Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: -4.5-4.5
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#21
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H19/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#21
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A21/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#28
L
46-53
46
53
-7
A24/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
W
62-54
62
54
+8
A25/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A28/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#11
L
43-63
43
63
-20
H30/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#14
L
43-61
43
61
-18
H02/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
62-55
62
55
+7
A04/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
52-69
52
69
-17
A05/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
49-60
49
60
-11
H07/12
NBA
103.8Avg total
49.6Scored
54.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.053.4106.5-0.453%-
Last 30 at home (12)50.851.5102.3-0.750%-
Last 30 away (18)54.554.7109.2-0.256%-
Last 10 (10)49.654.2103.8-4.650%-
Last 5 (5)49.861.6111.4-11.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)50.259.2109.5-9.025%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)55.155.6110.7-0.650%-
vs Weaker (12)51.648.9100.5+2.767%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
W
58-47
58
47
+11
H20/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#29
W
62-50
62
50
+12
H21/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#29
W
77-36
77
36
+41
H23/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#28
W
64-52
64
52
+12
H25/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#11
W
58-47
58
47
+11
A27/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
52-47
52
47
+5
A28/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
L
60-68
60
68
-8
H02/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#10
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A03/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#4
W
69-52
69
52
+17
H05/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#14
W
56-50
56
50
+6
H07/12
NBA
109.3Avg total
59.6Scored
49.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.352.4108.7+3.970%-
Last 30 at home (16)59.152.2111.3+6.969%-
Last 30 away (14)53.152.6105.8+0.571%-
Last 10 (10)59.649.7109.3+9.980%-
Last 5 (5)55.453.0108.4+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (21)54.254.4108.6-0.257%-
vs Weaker (9)61.347.8109.1+13.6100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 102.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.2 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.225.0
53.0%
53.1%50.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.412.1
35.2%
35.3%36.3
🏀 Free throws20.615.8
76.7%
77.4%15.8
They take 81.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 114.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.2 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.326.4
53.5%
53.1%52.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.914.4
38.0%
35.3%43.2
🏀 Free throws24.118.4
76.3%
77.4%18.4
They take 87.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Dec 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLWLLWLWLW
Milwaukee Bucks
WWLWWWWWWW
#4
League position
#5
-5.4
Net rating
+12.4
106.2
Offensive rating
113.3
111.6
Defensive rating
101.0
52.9%
Effective FG%
55.0%
55.2%
Opp. effective FG%
48.4%
14.2%
Turnover %
13.9%
21.4%
Off. rebound %
25.3%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.28
35.2%
3-point %
38.0%
67.4%
Assist %
60.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence106.2 · 113.3Defence111.6 · 101.0Shooting52.9% · 55.0%3-point %35.2% · 38.0%Ball care14.2% · 13.9%Off. rebounds21.4% · 25.3%Free throws0.25 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)40% · 90%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
7
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/12/21HMemphis Grizzlies90-105
05/12/21AMilwaukee Bucks102-124
04/12/21AIndiana Pacers113-104
02/12/21HCleveland Cavaliers85-111
30/11/21HDenver Nuggets111-120
28/11/21AChicago Bulls107-104
25/11/21AMinnesota Timberwolves101-113
24/11/21ADetroit Pistons100-92
21/11/21AWashington Wizards100-103
19/11/21HWashington Wizards112-97
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/12/21HCleveland Cavaliers112-104
05/12/21HMiami Heat124-102
03/12/21AToronto Raptors93-97
02/12/21HCharlotte Hornets127-125
28/11/21AIndiana Pacers118-100
27/11/21ADenver Nuggets120-109
25/11/21HDetroit Pistons114-93
23/11/21HOrlando Magic123-92
21/11/21HOrlando Magic117-108
20/11/21HOklahoma City Thunder96-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2021-22
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL56%
HomeWWLLL60%
AwayWLWWL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251015
Win %56%60%53%
Points / game107.0106.5107.3
Allowed / game104.5102.5105.9
Point differential+2.5+4.0+1.5
Avg total211.5209.0213.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%50%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)100% (1)25% (4)
Overtime %8%0%13%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2021-22
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW64%
HomeWWWWW69%
AwayLLWWL58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251312
Win %64%69%58%
Points / game110.5111.0110.0
Allowed / game106.3104.2108.7
Point differential+4.2+6.8+1.3
Avg total216.8215.2218.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%31%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors2420483%113.6100.6+13.0
2 Phoenix Suns2420483%111.4105.0+6.4
3 Brooklyn Nets2417771%109.2105.5+3.7
4 Utah Jazz2316770%114.0104.8+9.2
5 Chicago Bulls2617965%108.9105.2+3.7
6 Milwaukee Bucks2516964%110.5106.3+4.2
7 Memphis Grizzlies24141058%111.0110.9+0.1
8 Washington Wizards26151158%106.0106.8-0.8
9 Miami Heat25141156%107.0104.5+2.5
10 Philadelphia 76ers25141156%107.1105.9+1.2
11 Cleveland Cavaliers26141254%105.0102.0+2.9
12 Atlanta Hawks25131252%111.0108.5+2.6
13 Boston Celtics25131252%108.6106.9+1.7
14 Los Angeles Clippers25131252%105.7104.4+1.4
15 Los Angeles Lakers25131252%111.9113.0-1.0
16 Charlotte Hornets27141352%115.4116.0-0.6
17 New York Knicks25121348%106.9107.9-1.0
18 Denver Nuggets23111248%103.7104.1-0.3
19 Dallas Mavericks23111248%104.3106.0-1.7
20 Minnesota Timberwolves24111346%108.0107.6+0.4
21 Toronto Raptors24111346%104.8105.1-0.3
22 Portland Trail Blazers25111444%108.7111.3-2.6
23 Sacramento Kings24101442%109.8112.8-3.0
24 Indiana Pacers27111641%108.1106.6+1.6
25 San Antonio Spurs2381535%107.6108.3-0.7
26 Houston Rockets2371630%105.2111.9-6.7
27 Oklahoma City Thunder2371630%98.8108.0-9.2
28 New Orleans Pelicans2671927%103.3110.1-6.7
29 Orlando Magic2552020%100.4111.1-10.7
30 Detroit Pistons2442017%99.8109.2-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat24203930113
Milwaukee Bucks26252627104
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