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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 05 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 00:30
Scheduled
Position#18
Record5-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game115.7
Allowed / game120.0
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.3/10
Below normal
4.0/10
Below normal
Position#30
Record1-11
FormLLLLL
Points / game106.8
Allowed / game121.3
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#8
L
111-128
111
128
-17
92avg 113
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
110-115
110
115
-5
95avg 113
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 113
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 113
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 113
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 113
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 113
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 113
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 113
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
115-109
115
109
+6
99avg 113
A11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
34-30
34-29
23-22
23-27
29-25
35-29
28-18
23-37
235.6Avg total
116.7Scored
118.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)115.7120.0235.7-4.345%
Season at home (4)117.8124.2242.0-6.525%
Season away (7)114.6117.6232.1-3.057%
Last 10 (10)116.7118.9235.6-2.250%
Last 5 (5)112.6118.2230.8-5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)114.8126.7241.4-11.922%
vs Similar (13)121.4123.8245.2-2.438%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)126.4119.2245.6+7.175%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
116-127
116
127
-11
111avg 98
A24/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
110-102
110
102
+8
103avg 98
H27/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
100-132
100
132
-32
74avg 98
H29/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#16
L
111-136
111
136
-25
88avg 98
H01/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
L
100-112
100
112
-12
84avg 98
A03/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#2
L
102-109
102
109
-7
92avg 98
A05/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#17
L
107-121
107
121
-14
94avg 98
H07/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#2
L
97-117
97
117
-20
79avg 98
H09/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#15
L
85-117
85
117
-32
62avg 98
A11/11
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
112-123
112
123
-11
102avg 98
H12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-34
35-30
27-33
29-30
31-29
19-32
34-24
26-17
21-23
14-34
34-38
31-37
25-24
21-48
30-37
35-27
18-29
29-19
29-32
24-32
14-28
27-34
38-25
23-22
29-24
31-27
27-38
20-32
27-25
18-33
29-33
23-26
21-26
13-32
38-27
13-32
28-30
22-31
23-33
39-29
223.6Avg total
104.0Scored
119.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)106.8121.3228.1-14.68%
Season at home (7)108.9123.3232.1-14.414%
Season away (5)103.8118.6222.4-14.80%
Last 10 (10)104.0119.6223.6-15.610%
Last 5 (5)100.6117.4218.0-16.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)105.1122.3227.5-17.29%
vs Similar (7)117.7114.4232.1+3.357%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -3.3-3.3Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -9.1-9.1Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -2.1-2.1
-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -3.3-3.3Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -9.1-9.1Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -2.1-2.1
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#8
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/11
NBA
122.2Avg total
60.9Scored
61.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.462.5123.8-1.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)62.462.4124.9+0.050%-
Last 30 away (16)60.462.5122.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)60.961.3122.2-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)61.862.4124.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)60.064.3124.3-4.322%-
vs Similar (13)57.862.7120.5-4.838%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)68.660.0128.6+8.675%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
60-64
60
64
-4
A24/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H27/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
35-57
35
57
-22
H29/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#16
L
46-72
46
72
-26
H01/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
L
47-48
47
48
-1
A03/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#2
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A05/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#17
W
60-51
60
51
+9
H07/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#2
L
45-58
45
58
-13
H09/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#15
L
34-58
34
58
-24
A11/11
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H12/11
NBA
106.0Avg total
46.8Scored
59.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.760.0111.7-8.330%-
Last 30 at home (15)53.860.2114.0-6.440%-
Last 30 away (15)49.659.7109.3-10.120%-
Last 10 (10)46.859.2106.0-12.410%-
Last 5 (5)46.058.0104.0-12.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)49.960.8110.7-11.022%-
vs Similar (7)57.757.1114.9+0.657%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.129.7
55.9%
54.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.813.6
35.1%
35.1%40.8
🏀 Free throws25.118.7
74.5%
77.1%18.7
They take 91.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 113.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers49.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.824.6
56.2%
54.0%49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.416.4
37.8%
35.1%49.2
🏀 Free throws20.914.7
70.3%
77.1%14.7
They take 87.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLWLWWLLL
Milwaukee Bucks
LLLLLLLLWL
#18
League position
#30
-0.5
Net rating
-6.8
111.7
Offensive rating
105.9
112.2
Defensive rating
112.7
54.5%
Effective FG%
56.4%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
55.4%
11.9%
Turnover %
15.8%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
15.2%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.24
35.1%
3-point %
37.8%
66.3%
Assist %
66.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence111.7 · 105.9Defence112.2 · 112.7Shooting54.5% · 56.4%3-point %35.1% · 37.8%Ball care11.9% · 15.8%Off. rebounds19.3% · 15.2%Free throws0.27 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 10%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
7
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AUtah Jazz115-109
09/11/26ASacramento Kings114-108
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HLos Angeles Lakers112-123
11/11/26ANew York Knicks85-117
09/11/26HBoston Celtics97-117
07/11/26HToronto Raptors107-121
05/11/26ABoston Celtics102-109
03/11/26AMinnesota Timberwolves100-112
01/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers111-136
29/10/26HHouston Rockets100-132
27/10/26HIndiana Pacers110-102
24/10/26APhiladelphia 76ers116-127

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW45%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %45%25%57%
Points / game115.7117.8114.6
Allowed / game120.0124.2117.6
Point differential-4.3-6.5-3.0
Avg total235.7242.0232.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %9%0%14%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL8%
HomeLLLLL14%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1275
Win %8%14%0%
Points / game106.8108.9103.8
Allowed / game121.3123.3118.6
Point differential-14.6-14.4-14.8
Avg total228.1232.1222.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
2 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
3 San Antonio Spurs1210283%119.2108.0+11.2
4 Houston Rockets129375%115.4106.5+8.9
5 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
6 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
7 Portland Trail Blazers118373%119.5112.3+7.3
8 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
9 Golden State Warriors128467%119.3111.5+7.8
10 Oklahoma City Thunder128467%111.1106.9+4.2
11 Memphis Grizzlies117464%117.9111.9+6.0
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 New York Knicks116555%110.3103.5+6.8
16 Cleveland Cavaliers126650%116.4114.3+2.1
17 Toronto Raptors115645%114.5111.9+2.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 Orlando Magic114736%108.5114.0-5.5
21 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
22 Indiana Pacers124833%111.6114.0-2.4
23 Washington Wizards124833%107.5113.4-5.9
24 New Orleans Pelicans124833%116.9124.2-7.3
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
27 Chicago Bulls101910%113.3128.8-15.5
28 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
29 Utah Jazz121118%106.6118.1-11.5
30 Milwaukee Bucks121118%106.8121.3-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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