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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 16 Mar 2019
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 98-113
37-19 25-23 18-37 18-34
Position#17
Record32-35
FormWWWLW
Points / game106.1
Allowed / game106.1
vs
Position#1
Record51-17
FormLWWLW
Points / game117.6
Allowed / game108.4
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#16
L
96-119
96
119
-23
78avg 98
H24/02
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
L
121-124
121
124
-3
114avg 98
H26/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
126-125
126
125
+1
120avg 98
H28/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
118-121
118
121
-3
113avg 98
A01/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#15
W
117-88
117
88
+29
122avg 98
H03/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
W
114-113
114
113
+1
110avg 98
H05/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
W
91-84
91
84
+7
no box
A07/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
126-110
126
110
+16
129avg 98
H09/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
104-125
104
125
-21
90avg 98
H10/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
W
108-74
108
74
+34
104avg 98
H13/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-20
17-34
30-30
20-35
29-23
34-29
24-32
34-40
32-22
42-37
26-33
26-33
32-33
37-22
29-31
20-35
28-23
26-21
30-20
33-24
32-31
29-30
24-24
29-28
29-18
14-25
18-15
30-26
28-29
29-28
37-26
32-27
27-32
27-36
25-23
25-34
30-18
24-31
33-8
21-17
220.4Avg total
112.1Scored
108.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (67)106.1106.1212.1+0.048%
Season at home (35)106.5106.7213.2-0.246%
Season away (32)105.6105.3210.9+0.250%
Last 10 (10)112.1108.3220.4+3.860%
Last 5 (5)108.6101.2209.8+7.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)109.4117.3226.7-7.929%
vs Similar (15)101.3101.2202.5+0.140%
vs Weaker (8)106.9106.5213.4+0.462%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
140-128
140
128
+12
137avg 110
H24/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
117-106
117
106
+11
108avg 110
A26/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
W
141-140 OT
141
140
+1
136avg 110
A28/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
W
131-120
131
120
+11
no box
A02/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
111-115
111
115
-4
96avg 110
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
L
105-114
105
114
-9
90avg 110
A05/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
117-98
117
98
+19
113avg 110
H08/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
W
131-114
131
114
+17
130avg 110
H10/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#11
L
114-121
114
121
-7
105avg 110
A11/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
130-113
130
113
+17
125avg 110
A13/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-32
34-38
38-39
33-19
25-38
38-16
27-26
27-26
34-33
39-29
31-29
22-35
27-26
32-39
34-29
38-26
26-23
20-30
32-20
33-42
31-20
23-32
28-24
23-38
32-24
22-26
30-22
33-26
24-32
31-27
39-28
37-27
32-25
28-29
23-33
31-34
23-23
33-25
45-41
29-24
240.6Avg total
123.7Scored
116.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (68)117.6108.4226.1+9.275%
Season at home (32)119.9106.8226.7+13.184%
Season away (36)115.6109.9225.5+5.867%
Last 10 (10)123.7116.9240.6+6.870%
Last 5 (5)119.4112.0231.4+7.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)105.092.0197.0+13.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)118.0109.3227.4+8.779%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.7+4.7Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: +3.6+3.6Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +0.9+0.9
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.7+4.7Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: +3.6+3.6Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +0.9+0.9
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#16
L
46-54
46
54
-8
H24/02
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
63-52
63
52
+11
H26/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
74-59
74
59
+15
H28/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
W
69-55
69
55
+14
A01/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#15
W
54-44
54
44
+10
H03/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
D
61-61
61
61
+0
H05/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A07/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H09/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
54-68
54
68
-14
H10/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
W
54-49
54
49
+5
H13/03
NBA
111.7Avg total
57.5Scored
54.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.154.3108.4-0.340%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.555.1111.6+1.553%-
Last 30 away (15)51.653.6105.2-2.027%-
Last 10 (10)57.554.2111.7+3.350%-
Last 5 (5)53.855.6109.4-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)58.956.9115.7+2.057%-
vs Similar (15)52.653.7106.3-1.147%-
vs Weaker (8)52.653.2105.9-0.612%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
69-70
69
70
-1
H24/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
63-54
63
54
+9
A26/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
W
73-62
73
62
+11
A28/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
L
59-65
59
65
-6
A02/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
46-53
46
53
-7
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
54-52
54
52
+2
A05/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
54-50
54
50
+4
H08/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
L
55-59
55
59
-4
H10/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#11
W
60-54
60
54
+6
A11/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
56-48
56
48
+8
A13/03
NBA
115.6Avg total
58.9Scored
56.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.053.7111.7+4.263%-
Last 30 at home (10)60.157.0117.1+3.140%-
Last 30 away (20)56.952.1109.0+4.875%-
Last 10 (10)58.956.7115.6+2.260%-
Last 5 (5)55.852.6108.4+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)56.047.0103.0+9.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)58.054.0112.0+4.162%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 111.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.030.6
53.7%
51.7%61.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.811.2
38.9%
35.4%33.6
🏀 Free throws23.617.1
72.5%
76.6%17.1
They take 85.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 123.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.7 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.329.2
54.8%
51.7%58.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.914.9
36.4%
35.4%44.7
🏀 Free throws25.520.4
80.0%
76.6%20.4
They take 94.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Mar 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLWWWWLWLL
Milwaukee Bucks
WLWWLLWWWW
#17
League position
#1
+3.6
Net rating
+6.2
113.4
Offensive rating
115.6
109.7
Defensive rating
109.4
55.2%
Effective FG%
54.7%
54.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.5%
13.9%
Turnover %
11.1%
28.0%
Off. rebound %
23.4%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.27
38.9%
3-point %
36.4%
61.0%
Assist %
57.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence113.4 · 115.6Defence109.7 · 109.4Shooting55.2% · 54.7%3-point %38.9% · 36.4%Ball care13.9% · 11.1%Off. rebounds28.0% · 23.4%Free throws0.28 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Miami Heat wins
3
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/19HDetroit Pistons108-74
10/03/19HToronto Raptors104-125
09/03/19HCleveland Cavaliers126-110
07/03/19ACharlotte Hornets91-84
05/03/19HAtlanta Hawks114-113
03/03/19HBrooklyn Nets117-88
01/03/19AHouston Rockets118-121
28/02/19HGolden State Warriors126-125
26/02/19HPhoenix Suns121-124
24/02/19HDetroit Pistons96-119
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/19ANew Orleans Pelicans130-113
11/03/19ASan Antonio Spurs114-121
10/03/19HCharlotte Hornets131-114
08/03/19HIndiana Pacers117-98
05/03/19APhoenix Suns105-114
03/03/19AUtah Jazz111-115
02/03/19ALos Angeles Lakers131-120
28/02/19ASacramento Kings141-140 OT
26/02/19AChicago Bulls117-106
24/02/19HMinnesota Timberwolves140-128

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW48%
HomeWWWLW46%
AwayLWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games673532
Win %48%46%50%
Points / game106.1106.5105.6
Allowed / game106.1106.7105.3
Point differential+0.0-0.2+0.2
Avg total212.1213.2210.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%17%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (21)55% (11)30% (10)
Overtime %1%0%3%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW75%
HomeLWWWW84%
AwayWLLLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games683236
Win %75%84%67%
Points / game117.6119.9115.6
Allowed / game108.4106.8109.9
Point differential+9.2+13.1+5.8
Avg total226.1226.7225.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%66%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)50% (4)44% (9)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks68511775%117.6108.4+9.2
2 Toronto Raptors69492071%114.0108.8+5.2
3 Golden State Warriors67462169%118.0112.2+5.8
4 Denver Nuggets67452267%112.1107.1+5.0
5 Indiana Pacers69442564%108.2103.9+4.3
6 Philadelphia 76ers69442564%114.9111.5+3.3
7 Houston Rockets68422662%112.9110.1+2.7
8 Portland Trail Blazers67412661%114.0110.5+3.6
9 Boston Celtics69422761%112.5107.3+5.2
10 Oklahoma City Thunder69422761%114.9110.9+4.1
11 Utah Jazz68392957%110.1106.5+3.6
12 San Antonio Spurs68392957%112.0110.9+1.1
13 Los Angeles Clippers69393057%114.4113.6+0.8
14 Detroit Pistons68353351%107.2107.6-0.4
15 Brooklyn Nets70363451%111.6111.7-0.1
16 Sacramento Kings68333549%113.8115.1-1.4
17 Miami Heat67323548%106.1106.1+0.0
18 Minnesota Timberwolves69323746%112.8113.5-0.7
19 Orlando Magic70323846%105.8106.5-0.7
20 Charlotte Hornets68313746%110.9111.8-0.9
21 Los Angeles Lakers69313845%111.8113.8-2.1
22 New Orleans Pelicans70304043%115.6115.6+0.0
23 Washington Wizards69294042%114.3116.8-2.4
24 Memphis Grizzlies69284141%101.8104.1-2.4
25 Dallas Mavericks68274140%107.7109.5-1.8
26 Atlanta Hawks69244535%112.7118.6-6.0
27 Chicago Bulls69195028%105.0112.8-7.8
28 Cleveland Cavaliers69175225%103.8113.3-9.5
29 Phoenix Suns69165323%106.8115.9-9.1
30 New York Knicks68135519%105.3113.7-8.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat3725181898
Milwaukee Bucks19233734113
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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