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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 18 Nov 2016
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 96-73
21-27 27-21 19-14 29-11
Position#13
Record2-8
FormLLLLL
Points / game94.4
Allowed / game97.5
vs
Position#14
Record5-5
FormWLLWL
Points / game103.5
Allowed / game102.5
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2016-17
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#26
W
108-96
108
96
+12
101avg 92
A26/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
L
91-97
91
97
-6
80avg 92
H29/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
99-106
99
106
-7
86avg 92
H30/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
108-96 OT
108
96
+12
99avg 92
H01/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#7
L
87-96
87
96
-9
72avg 92
A04/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
85-97
85
97
-12
66avg 92
A08/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
L
95-98
95
98
-3
84avg 92
H11/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
L
91-102
91
102
-11
80avg 92
H13/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
90-94
90
94
-4
78avg 92
A15/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
90-93
90
93
-3
74avg 92
H16/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-27
27-26
30-16
28-27
23-21
34-25
20-27
14-24
19-24
25-28
28-25
27-29
28-26
26-24
19-17
18-24
27-25
19-27
26-23
15-21
28-39
19-16
14-28
24-14
22-23
31-30
17-17
25-28
21-23
26-29
12-24
32-26
19-25
21-30
20-16
30-23
25-22
18-27
24-23
23-21
191.9Avg total
94.4Scored
97.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)94.497.5191.9-3.120%
Season at home (6)95.798.7194.3-3.017%
Season away (4)92.595.8188.2-3.225%
Last 10 (10)94.497.5191.9-3.120%
Last 5 (5)90.296.8187.0-6.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)94.5100.0194.5-5.50%
vs Similar ◀ (26)97.095.4192.4+1.642%
vs Weaker (2)108.096.0204.0+12.0100%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#20
L
96-107
96
107
-11
84avg 92
H27/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#30
W
110-108
110
108
+2
103avg 92
H30/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
83-98
83
98
-15
70avg 92
A30/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#21
W
117-113
117
113
+4
116avg 92
A02/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#16
W
125-107
125
107
+18
127avg 92
H04/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
117-91
117
91
+26
120avg 92
H06/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
L
75-86 OT
75
86
-11
64avg 92
A07/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#21
L
106-112
106
112
-6
96avg 92
H11/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
106-96
106
96
+10
101avg 92
H13/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
100-107
100
107
-7
86avg 92
A17/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-32
17-24
25-27
30-24
24-18
22-23
34-32
30-35
21-24
18-26
26-25
18-23
29-32
34-22
21-32
33-27
29-30
34-27
27-22
35-28
34-24
27-24
29-15
27-28
27-19
12-28
17-12
18-15
27-26
27-35
27-27
25-24
24-19
20-20
31-31
31-26
26-21
9-31
35-32
30-23
206.0Avg total
103.5Scored
102.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)103.5102.5206.0+1.050%
Season at home (6)110.0103.5213.5+6.567%
Season away (4)93.8101.0194.8-7.225%
Last 10 (10)103.5102.5206.0+1.050%
Last 5 (5)100.898.4199.2+2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)94.6105.8200.5-11.29%
vs Similar ◀ (17)102.2100.5202.6+1.753%
vs Weaker (2)109.5108.0217.5+1.5100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -4.0-4.0Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +2.4+2.4
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -2.0-2.0Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -4.0-4.0Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +2.4+2.4
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#26
L
50-53
50
53
-3
A26/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
W
57-46
57
46
+11
H29/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
44-52
44
52
-8
H30/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
54-50
54
50
+4
H01/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#7
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A04/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
47-55
47
55
-8
A08/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H11/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
L
47-52
47
52
-5
H13/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
40-55
40
55
-15
A15/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H16/11
NBA
99.8Avg total
48.1Scored
51.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.748.898.5+0.940%-
Last 30 at home (16)51.647.699.2+3.956%-
Last 30 away (14)47.650.197.7-2.621%-
Last 10 (10)48.151.799.8-3.620%-
Last 5 (5)46.052.898.8-6.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)42.053.595.5-11.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (26)50.148.298.3+1.942%-
vs Weaker (2)52.051.5103.5+0.550%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#20
L
41-56
41
56
-15
H27/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#30
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H30/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
39-50
39
50
-11
A30/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#21
W
63-54
63
54
+9
A02/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#16
W
63-57
63
57
+6
H04/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H06/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A07/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#21
L
54-61
54
61
-7
H11/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H13/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A17/11
NBA
99.0Avg total
48.5Scored
50.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.053.1102.1-4.137%-
Last 30 at home (18)49.253.6102.7-4.444%-
Last 30 away (12)48.852.3101.1-3.625%-
Last 10 (10)48.550.599.0-2.050%-
Last 5 (5)46.649.496.0-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)48.656.4105.0-7.718%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)48.652.1100.8-3.541%-
vs Weaker (2)54.043.097.0+11.0100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 94.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.528.5
44.9%
50.2%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.88.0
35.1%
35.7%24.0
🏀 Free throws19.713.4
68.0%
77.0%13.4
They take 86.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 26% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 103.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.6 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.731.3
50.7%
50.2%62.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.47.8
32.0%
35.7%23.4
🏀 Free throws21.917.5
79.9%
77.0%17.5
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 28% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLLLLLWLLW
Milwaukee Bucks
LWLLWWWLWL
#13
League position
#14
-3.2
Net rating
+1.0
96.6
Offensive rating
103.9
99.8
Defensive rating
102.9
46.9%
Effective FG%
49.9%
46.4%
Opp. effective FG%
48.9%
14.1%
Turnover %
14.9%
23.3%
Off. rebound %
24.6%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.25
35.1%
3-point %
32.0%
54.2%
Assist %
61.9%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence96.6 · 103.9Defence99.8 · 102.9Shooting46.9% · 49.9%3-point %35.1% · 32.0%Ball care14.1% · 14.9%Off. rebounds23.3% · 24.6%Free throws0.23 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)20% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/11/16HAtlanta Hawks90-93
15/11/16ASan Antonio Spurs90-94
13/11/16HUtah Jazz91-102
11/11/16HChicago Bulls95-98
08/11/16AOklahoma City Thunder85-97
04/11/16AToronto Raptors87-96
01/11/16HSacramento Kings108-96 OT
30/10/16HSan Antonio Spurs99-106
29/10/16HCharlotte Hornets91-97
26/10/16AOrlando Magic108-96
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/11/16AAtlanta Hawks100-107
13/11/16HMemphis Grizzlies106-96
11/11/16HNew Orleans Pelicans106-112
07/11/16ADallas Mavericks75-86 OT
06/11/16HSacramento Kings117-91
04/11/16HIndiana Pacers125-107
02/11/16ANew Orleans Pelicans117-113
30/10/16ADetroit Pistons83-98
30/10/16HBrooklyn Nets110-108
27/10/16HCharlotte Hornets96-107

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL20%
HomeLWLLL17%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %20%17%25%
Points / game94.495.792.5
Allowed / game97.598.795.8
Point differential-3.1-3.0-3.2
Avg total191.9194.3188.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%17%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %10%17%0%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL50%
HomeWWWLW67%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %50%67%25%
Points / game103.5110.093.8
Allowed / game102.5103.5101.0
Point differential+1.0+6.5-7.2
Avg total206.0213.5194.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %10%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Clippers1210283%108.793.8+14.9
2 Atlanta Hawks119282%107.898.2+9.6
3 Golden State Warriors119282%117.4109.4+8.0
4 Cleveland Cavaliers119282%109.0103.5+5.5
5 San Antonio Spurs129375%101.996.8+5.1
6 Charlotte Hornets107370%105.599.8+5.7
7 Chicago Bulls117464%106.899.6+7.2
8 Toronto Raptors117464%107.8103.7+4.1
9 Utah Jazz127558%97.593.8+3.7
10 Los Angeles Lakers127558%110.0108.4+1.6
11 Oklahoma City Thunder127558%103.2102.8+0.5
12 Portland Trail Blazers127558%107.0111.2-4.2
13 Houston Rockets116555%107.4104.8+2.5
14 Boston Celtics116555%106.3105.8+0.5
15 Memphis Grizzlies116555%98.7102.4-3.6
16 Detroit Pistons126650%98.696.9+1.7
17 Milwaukee Bucks105550%103.5102.5+1.0
18 Indiana Pacers126650%106.2106.8-0.6
19 New York Knicks125742%102.2107.2-4.9
20 Orlando Magic125742%92.3100.9-8.6
21 Denver Nuggets114736%105.5107.8-2.3
22 Brooklyn Nets114736%106.4110.9-4.5
23 Sacramento Kings124833%100.2104.2-3.9
24 Minnesota Timberwolves103730%107.9106.1+1.8
25 Washington Wizards113827%101.8105.3-3.5
26 Phoenix Suns123925%108.0116.0-8.0
27 Miami Heat102820%94.497.5-3.1
28 Dallas Mavericks102820%93.7100.2-6.5
29 Philadelphia 76ers112918%96.8108.3-11.5
30 New Orleans Pelicans1221017%100.1107.4-7.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat2127192996
Milwaukee Bucks2721141173
← all games of the day
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