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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Mar 2009
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 102-85
28-23 30-20 19-20 25-22
Position#14
Record38-34
FormLWWLL
Points / game98.1
Allowed / game98.3
vs
Position#20
Record31-42
FormWLLLL
Points / game99.0
Allowed / game100.4
USANBA
NBA2008-09
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#15
W
130-127 OT
130
127
+3
H09/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
107-99
107
99
+8
H11/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#11
W
140-129 OT
140
129
+11
H14/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#16
L
77-85
77
85
-8
A15/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
108-112 OT
108
112
-4
A18/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#21
L
88-96
88
96
-8
A20/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#17
W
101-96
101
96
+5
A22/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#26
W
94-82
94
82
+12
H23/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#18
L
88-90
88
90
-2
A25/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
L
87-106
87
106
-19
A27/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-26
32-26
30-22
20-30
31-32
19-23
32-18
25-26
19-29
32-26
32-25
24-27
22-29
21-17
25-15
9-24
21-34
33-15
22-26
24-25
17-21
22-30
24-16
25-29
20-23
23-24
24-26
34-23
30-16
26-24
24-22
14-20
24-27
25-21
19-19
20-23
25-26
24-21
14-32
24-27
204.2Avg total
102.0Scored
102.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (72)98.198.3196.5-0.253%
Season at home (36)100.796.7197.4+4.069%
Season away (36)95.6100.0195.6-4.436%
Last 10 (10)102.0102.2204.2-0.250%
Last 5 (5)91.694.0185.6-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)100.6107.8208.4-7.220%
vs Similar ◀ (21)99.9101.1201.0-1.252%
vs Weaker (4)102.589.8192.2+12.875%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#1
L
73-91
73
91
-18
A05/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
L
102-117
102
117
-15
A07/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#24
W
127-120
127
120
+7
H08/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#23
L
112-120
112
120
-8
H11/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
L
86-95
86
95
-9
H14/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
86-77
86
77
+9
H15/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#4
L
80-106
80
106
-26
H19/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
84-96
84
96
-12
H22/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#22
L
106-115
106
115
-9
A25/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#4
L
94-110
94
110
-16
A27/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-22
19-26
19-24
15-19
26-25
26-38
28-22
22-32
33-28
29-25
32-32
33-35
31-29
34-27
19-32
28-32
14-14
24-25
25-27
23-29
22-25
19-16
24-22
21-14
20-36
15-29
25-17
20-24
24-18
19-21
17-30
24-27
20-25
24-40
27-29
35-21
20-21
23-28
27-31
24-30
199.7Avg total
95.0Scored
104.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (73)99.0100.4199.4-1.442%
Season at home (36)102.699.8202.4+2.956%
Season away (37)95.5101.0196.6-5.530%
Last 10 (10)95.0104.7199.7-9.720%
Last 5 (5)90.0100.8190.8-10.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)94.3102.4196.8-8.133%
vs Similar ◀ (19)102.6106.1208.7-3.532%
vs Weaker (2)107.598.5206.0+9.0100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: -4.3-4.3Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: -2.3-2.3Q4Q4: -3.5-3.5Q4: -1.8-1.8
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: -4.3-4.3Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: -2.3-2.3Q4Q4: -3.5-3.5Q4: -1.8-1.8
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#15
W
54-52
54
52
+2
H09/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
50-55
50
55
-5
H11/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#11
L
51-55
51
55
-4
H14/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#16
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A15/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
54-49
54
49
+5
A18/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#21
L
39-51
39
51
-12
A20/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#17
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A22/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#26
W
56-40
56
40
+16
H23/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#18
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A25/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A27/03
NBA
97.8Avg total
48.8Scored
49.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.149.197.1-1.047%-
Last 30 at home (16)50.649.4100.0+1.256%-
Last 30 away (14)45.148.793.9-3.636%-
Last 10 (10)48.849.097.8-0.250%-
Last 5 (5)47.246.693.8+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)48.255.2103.4-7.020%-
vs Similar ◀ (21)47.548.896.2-1.343%-
vs Weaker (4)51.043.094.0+8.0100%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#1
L
39-48
39
48
-9
A05/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
L
52-63
52
63
-11
A07/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#24
W
62-53
62
53
+9
H08/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#23
W
65-56
65
56
+9
H11/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H14/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H15/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#4
L
35-65
35
65
-30
H19/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H22/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#22
L
44-65
44
65
-21
A25/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#4
L
43-49
43
49
-6
A27/03
NBA
98.0Avg total
46.2Scored
51.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.252.2101.4-3.040%-
Last 30 at home (18)52.751.7104.4+1.056%-
Last 30 away (12)44.052.996.9-8.917%-
Last 10 (10)46.251.898.0-5.630%-
Last 5 (5)41.251.893.0-10.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)47.952.099.9-4.133%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)48.952.4101.3-3.542%-
vs Weaker (2)58.551.5110.0+7.050%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Miami Heat wins
1
Milwaukee Bucks wins
DateGameScore
15/01/09Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat99-102
16/12/08Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks83-98
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/09AChicago Bulls87-106
25/03/09AIndiana Pacers88-90
23/03/09HMemphis Grizzlies94-82
22/03/09ADetroit Pistons101-96
20/03/09ABrooklyn Nets88-96
18/03/09ABoston Celtics108-112 OT
15/03/09APhiladelphia 76ers77-85
14/03/09HUtah Jazz140-129 OT
11/03/09HBoston Celtics107-99
09/03/09HChicago Bulls130-127 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/09AOrlando Magic94-110
25/03/09AToronto Raptors106-115
22/03/09HPortland Trail Blazers84-96
19/03/09HOrlando Magic80-106
15/03/09HBoston Celtics86-77
14/03/09HNew Orleans Pelicans86-95
11/03/09HNew York Knicks112-120
08/03/09HGolden State Warriors127-120
07/03/09AChicago Bulls102-117
05/03/09ACleveland Cavaliers73-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2008-09
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL53%
HomeWWWWW69%
AwayLLWLL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games723636
Win %53%69%36%
Points / game98.1100.795.6
Allowed / game98.396.7100.0
Point differential-0.2+4.0-4.4
Avg total196.5197.4195.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%28%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (21)100% (7)57% (14)
Overtime %8%8%8%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2008-09
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL42%
HomeLLWLL56%
AwayLLLLL30%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games733637
Win %42%56%30%
Points / game99.0102.695.5
Allowed / game100.499.8101.0
Point differential-1.4+2.9-5.5
Avg total199.4202.4196.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (19)50% (12)43% (7)
Overtime %5%8%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers72591382%100.391.2+9.1
2 Los Angeles Lakers72581481%107.9100.0+8.0
3 Orlando Magic72541875%102.294.8+7.4
4 Boston Celtics74551974%100.792.7+8.0
5 San Antonio Spurs72482467%97.093.0+4.0
6 Houston Rockets73472664%98.394.6+3.8
7 Denver Nuggets73472664%103.5100.4+3.1
8 Portland Trail Blazers72452762%99.295.4+3.9
9 Utah Jazz71442762%103.399.6+3.6
10 New Orleans Pelicans71442762%95.893.5+2.3
11 Dallas Mavericks72432960%101.5100.0+1.5
12 Atlanta Hawks73423158%98.396.5+1.9
13 Phoenix Suns72403256%109.0106.9+2.1
14 Miami Heat72383453%98.198.3-0.2
15 Philadelphia 76ers71373452%97.596.9+0.6
16 Chicago Bulls74363849%101.6102.2-0.6
17 Detroit Pistons72353749%93.994.6-0.7
18 Charlotte Hornets73334045%93.794.5-0.9
19 Milwaukee Bucks73314242%99.0100.4-1.4
20 Brooklyn Nets72304242%98.6101.0-2.4
21 Indiana Pacers73304341%103.7105.7-2.0
22 New York Knicks73294440%105.6108.2-2.6
23 Toronto Raptors72274538%98.0101.0-3.0
24 Golden State Warriors72254735%108.5112.2-3.7
25 Oklahoma City Thunder72205228%97.3103.0-5.6
26 Minnesota Timberwolves73205327%98.1103.1-5.0
27 Memphis Grizzlies71185325%93.499.6-6.2
28 Los Angeles Clippers73185525%95.8104.3-8.5
29 Washington Wizards74175723%95.3103.1-7.7
30 Sacramento Kings71155621%99.9108.5-8.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat28301925102
Milwaukee Bucks2320202285
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