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Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 05 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 116-126
28-40 35-32 17-24 36-30
Position#6
Record-
FormWLLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
vs
Position#10
Record-
FormLLWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Minnesota Timberwolves
07 Mar 2027
DEN v MIN
upcoming
28 Dec 2026
DEN v MIN
upcoming
27 Apr 2026
DEN125
MIN113
20 Apr 2026
DEN114
MIN119
18 Apr 2026
DEN116
MIN105
01 Mar 2026
DEN108
MIN117
25 Dec 2025
DEN142
MIN138
04 Oct 2025
DEN116
MIN126
01 Apr 2025
DEN139
MIN140
12 Mar 2025
DEN95
MIN115
19 May 2024
DEN90
MIN98
14 May 2024
DEN112
MIN97
06 May 2024
DEN80
MIN106
04 May 2024
DEN99
MIN106
10 Apr 2024
DEN116
MIN107
29 Mar 2024
DEN98
MIN111
25 Apr 2023
DEN112
MIN109
19 Apr 2023
DEN122
MIN113
16 Apr 2023
DEN109
MIN80
07 Feb 2023
DEN146
MIN112
18 Jan 2023
DEN122
MIN118
01 Apr 2022
DEN130
MIN136
15 Dec 2021
DEN107
MIN124
05 Jan 2021
DEN123
MIN116
23 Feb 2020
DEN128
MIN116
20 Dec 2019
DEN109
MIN100
10 Apr 2019
DEN99
MIN95
12 Mar 2019
DEN133
MIN107
05 Apr 2018
DEN100
MIN96
20 Dec 2017
DEN104
MIN112
15 Feb 2017
DEN99
MIN112
28 Dec 2016
DEN105
MIN103
11 Dec 2015
DEN111
MIN108
30 Oct 2015
DEN78
MIN95
17 Jan 2015
DEN105
MIN113
26 Dec 2014
DEN106
MIN102
03 Mar 2014
DEN128
MIN132
15 Nov 2013
DEN117
MIN113
09 Mar 2013
DEN111
MIN88
03 Jan 2013
DEN97
MIN101
11 Apr 2012
DEN113
MIN107
20 Feb 2012
DEN103
MIN101
09 Apr 2011
DEN130
MIN106
18 Dec 2010
DEN115
MIN113
11 Jan 2010
DEN105
MIN94
29 Nov 2009
DEN100
MIN106
10 Dec 2008
DEN116
MIN105
16 Nov 2008
DEN90
MIN84
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
131-115
131
115
+16
127avg 114
H30/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
105-111
105
111
-6
99avg 114
A02/05
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
120-101
120
101
+19
113avg 114
H03/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
121-119
121
119
+2
113avg 114
A06/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
106-149
106
149
-43
87avg 114
A08/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
113-104 OT
113
104
+9
109avg 114
H10/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
87-92
87
92
-5
73avg 114
H11/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
105-112
105
112
-7
91avg 114
A14/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
119-107
119
107
+12
118avg 114
H16/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
93-125
93
125
-32
83avg 114
A18/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-23
32-36
32-24
32-32
28-25
29-33
22-32
26-21
21-26
37-21
35-19
27-35
26-27
24-33
35-30
36-29
21-45
35-42
20-37
30-25
22-28
29-28
29-27
22-19
8-17
28-25
33-21
18-29
28-27
28-27
30-24
19-34
31-28
27-33
32-21
29-25
26-21
20-39
26-37
21-28
223.5Avg total
110.0Scored
113.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)110.0113.5223.5-3.550%
Last 5 (5)103.4108.0211.4-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)106.3115.4221.7-9.143%
vs Similar ◀ (18)115.6114.2229.8+1.361%
vs Weaker (5)117.2117.8235.0-0.620%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
88-99
88
99
-11
74avg 107
H07/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
117-93
117
93
+24
114avg 107
H09/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
102-97
102
97
+5
99avg 107
A11/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
117-110
117
110
+7
110avg 107
A13/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
121-110
121
110
+11
129avg 107
H15/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
88-114
88
114
-26
73avg 107
A21/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
103-118
103
118
-15
89avg 107
A23/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
143-101
143
101
+42
142avg 107
H25/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
126-128
126
128
-2
124avg 107
H27/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
94-124
94
124
-30
78avg 107
A29/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-18
11-26
29-36
28-19
29-15
27-24
29-26
32-28
21-21
19-21
29-31
33-24
27-28
31-32
39-17
20-33
30-23
32-24
31-25
28-38
23-20
25-24
18-32
22-38
25-29
25-29
21-35
32-25
34-14
38-27
35-29
36-31
30-37
27-28
28-25
41-38
9-26
23-39
30-23
32-36
219.3Avg total
109.9Scored
109.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)109.9109.4219.3+0.550%
Last 5 (5)110.8117.0227.8-6.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)110.8117.0227.8-6.220%
vs Similar ◀ (16)113.9108.8222.6+5.169%
vs Weaker (9)119.0103.2222.2+15.889%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: -0.6-0.6
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: -0.6-0.6
Denver NuggetsMinnesota Timberwolves
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
67-59
67
59
+8
H30/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A02/05
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
58-47
58
47
+11
H03/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
50-60
50
60
-10
A06/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
56-87
56
87
-31
A08/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
51-56
51
56
-5
H10/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H11/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
56-54
56
54
+2
A14/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
58-61
58
61
-3
H16/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
46-60
46
60
-14
A18/05
NBA
111.9Avg total
53.5Scored
58.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.358.6115.9-1.347%-
Last 30 at home (16)58.157.3115.4+0.850%-
Last 30 away (14)56.460.1116.6-3.743%-
Last 10 (10)53.558.4111.9-4.930%-
Last 5 (5)49.454.6104.0-5.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)50.460.0110.4-9.614%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)58.858.0116.8+0.856%-
vs Weaker (5)61.459.0120.4+2.460%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H07/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
56-39
56
39
+17
H09/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A11/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
58-60
58
60
-2
A13/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
62-47
62
47
+15
H15/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A21/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
50-58
50
58
-8
A23/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
72-41
72
41
+31
H25/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
57-65
57
65
-8
H27/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
32-65
32
65
-33
A29/05
NBA
101.1Avg total
50.6Scored
50.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.252.4106.7+1.853%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.952.3109.2+4.662%-
Last 30 away (14)51.152.6103.7-1.443%-
Last 10 (10)50.650.5101.1+0.140%-
Last 5 (5)51.854.6106.4-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)51.854.6106.4-2.840%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)52.952.9105.8-0.138%-
vs Weaker (9)58.050.3108.3+7.789%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 110.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.826.5
52.2%
54.8%53.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.612.6
34.4%
35.8%37.8
🏀 Free throws24.519.2
78.4%
78.1%19.2
They take 87.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 109.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.726.1
54.7%
54.8%52.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.013.9
37.6%
35.8%41.7
🏀 Free throws20.616.0
77.7%
78.1%16.0
They take 84.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWLLWLWWLW
Minnesota Timberwolves
LLWLLWWWWL
#6
League position
#10
-3.5
Net rating
+0.5
109.2
Offensive rating
111.5
112.7
Defensive rating
111.0
51.9%
Effective FG%
55.4%
53.0%
Opp. effective FG%
52.8%
14.8%
Turnover %
16.9%
27.4%
Off. rebound %
27.9%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.24
34.4%
3-point %
37.6%
56.8%
Assist %
63.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.2 · 111.5Defence112.7 · 111.0Shooting51.9% · 55.4%3-point %34.4% · 37.6%Ball care14.8% · 16.9%Off. rebounds27.4% · 27.9%Free throws0.28 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Minnesota Timberwolves
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
18/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder93-125
16/05/25HOklahoma City Thunder119-107
14/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder105-112
11/05/25HOklahoma City Thunder87-92
10/05/25HOklahoma City Thunder113-104 OT
08/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder106-149
06/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder121-119
03/05/25HLos Angeles Clippers120-101
02/05/25ALos Angeles Clippers105-111
30/04/25HLos Angeles Clippers131-115
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder94-124
27/05/25HOklahoma City Thunder126-128
25/05/25HOklahoma City Thunder143-101
23/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder103-118
21/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder88-114
15/05/25HGolden State Warriors121-110
13/05/25AGolden State Warriors117-110
11/05/25AGolden State Warriors102-97
09/05/25HGolden State Warriors117-93
07/05/25HGolden State Warriors88-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

No league table for this competition yet.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets28351736116
Minnesota Timberwolves40322430126
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