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Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 Nov 2023
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 125-114
40-24 30-31 32-32 23-27
Position#3
Record4-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game110.8
Allowed / game103.6
vs
Position#6
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game122.5
Allowed / game113.5
USANBA· Ball Arena (Denver)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks
04 Feb 2027
DEN v DAL
upcoming
24 Nov 2026
DEN v DAL
upcoming
25 Mar 2026
DEN142
DAL135
01 Dec 2025
DEN121
DAL131
22 Nov 2024
DEN120
DAL123
10 Nov 2024
DEN122
DAL120
18 Dec 2023
DEN130
DAL104
03 Nov 2023
DEN125
DAL114
15 Feb 2023
DEN118
DAL109
06 Dec 2022
DEN115
DAL116
29 Oct 2021
DEN106
DAL75
13 Mar 2021
DEN103
DAL116
07 Jan 2021
DEN117
DAL124
13 Apr 2020
DEN v DAL
upcoming
29 Oct 2019
DEN106
DAL109
14 Mar 2019
DEN100
DAL99
18 Dec 2018
DEN126
DAL118
27 Jan 2018
DEN91
DAL89
16 Jan 2018
DEN105
DAL102
06 Feb 2017
DEN110
DAL87
19 Dec 2016
DEN117
DAL107
28 Mar 2016
DEN88
DAL97
06 Mar 2016
DEN116
DAL114
10 Apr 2015
DEN143
DAL144
14 Jan 2015
DEN114
DAL107
05 Mar 2014
DEN115
DAL110
23 Nov 2013
DEN102
DAL100
04 Apr 2013
DEN95
DAL94
19 Mar 2012
DEN95
DAL112
08 Feb 2012
DEN95
DAL105
10 Feb 2011
DEN121
DAL120
03 Nov 2010
DEN101
DAL102
09 Feb 2010
DEN127
DAL91
27 Dec 2009
DEN96
DAL104
13 May 2009
DEN124
DAL110
05 May 2009
DEN117
DAL105
03 May 2009
DEN109
DAL95
13 Jan 2009
DEN99
DAL97
07 Nov 2008
DEN108
DAL105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#10
W
104-93
104
93
+11
106avg 111
H02/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
108-111
108
111
-3
105avg 111
H05/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
109-94
109
94
+15
116avg 111
A08/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
108-95
108
95
+13
102avg 111
A10/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
94-89
94
89
+5
90avg 111
H13/06
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
119-107
119
107
+12
115avg 111
H24/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
108-104
108
104
+4
99avg 111
A27/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
128-95
128
95
+33
135avg 111
A29/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
110-102
110
102
+8
110avg 111
H31/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
89-110
89
110
-21
73avg 111
A02/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-20
30-22
25-21
20-30
23-26
34-25
26-24
25-36
24-24
29-24
29-20
27-26
20-21
35-30
31-22
22-22
22-24
22-27
26-20
24-18
34-20
29-34
24-26
32-27
25-18
36-38
28-23
19-25
34-23
35-28
28-24
31-20
31-21
27-24
22-24
30-33
21-28
23-35
28-26
17-21
207.7Avg total
107.7Scored
100.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)110.8103.6214.4+7.280%
Season at home (2)114.5104.5219.0+10.0100%
Season away (3)108.3103.0211.3+5.367%
Last 10 (10)107.7100.0207.7+7.780%
Last 5 (5)110.8103.6214.4+7.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (15)115.2108.2223.4+7.073%
vs Weaker (15)109.9104.3214.1+5.673%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
108-116
108
116
-8
100avg 105
A29/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
122-129
122
129
-7
124avg 105
A01/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
130-132 OT
130
132
-2
119avg 105
A02/04
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
W
123-119
123
119
+4
113avg 105
H06/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
112-115
112
115
-3
100avg 105
H08/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
L
117-138
117
138
-21
99avg 105
H09/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
126-119
126
119
+7
114avg 105
A26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
125-120
125
120
+5
110avg 105
H28/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
125-110
125
110
+15
121avg 105
A31/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
114-105
114
105
+9
108avg 105
H02/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
37-28
25-29
29-32
17-27
31-44
33-32
32-26
26-27
29-37
37-33
25-24
32-29
28-27
32-44
32-21
31-27
29-26
38-28
24-31
21-30
14-42
45-29
32-37
26-30
36-43
28-25
32-23
30-28
26-25
31-34
31-30
37-31
30-36
37-25
30-25
28-24
26-23
23-27
32-33
33-22
240.5Avg total
120.2Scored
120.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)122.5113.5236.0+9.0100%
Season at home (2)119.5112.5232.0+7.0100%
Season away (2)125.5114.5240.0+11.0100%
Last 10 (10)120.2120.3240.5-0.150%
Last 5 (5)121.4118.4239.8+3.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)109.0118.0227.0-9.00%
vs Similar ◀ (21)117.2117.9235.1-0.733%
vs Weaker (8)123.1119.8242.9+3.462%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.8+3.8Q1: -4.5-4.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +2.3+2.3Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +0.6+0.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.8+3.8Q1: -4.5-4.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +2.3+2.3Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +0.6+0.6
Denver NuggetsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#10
W
59-42
59
42
+17
H02/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
57-51
57
51
+6
H05/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
53-48
53
48
+5
A08/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
55-51
55
51
+4
A10/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H13/06
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
63-54
63
54
+9
H24/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
61-56
61
56
+5
A27/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
69-51
69
51
+18
A29/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
58-45
58
45
+13
H31/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
44-63
44
63
-19
A02/11
NBA
107.5Avg total
56.3Scored
51.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.353.7111.0+3.663%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.350.7107.0+5.767%-
Last 30 away (15)58.356.7115.0+1.560%-
Last 10 (10)56.351.2107.5+5.180%-
Last 5 (5)59.053.8112.8+5.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (15)58.357.1115.4+1.340%-
vs Weaker (15)56.350.3106.6+5.987%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
62-57
62
57
+5
A29/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
64-76
64
76
-12
A01/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
66-70
66
70
-4
A02/04
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
L
60-71
60
71
-11
H06/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H08/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
L
59-71
59
71
-12
H09/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
L
64-68
64
68
-4
A26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
L
57-59
57
59
-2
H28/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
67-61
67
61
+6
A31/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H02/11
NBA
125.2Avg total
61.5Scored
63.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.660.6120.2-1.043%-
Last 30 at home (15)60.061.1121.1-1.140%-
Last 30 away (15)59.160.1119.2-0.947%-
Last 10 (10)61.563.7125.2-2.230%-
Last 5 (5)59.261.8121.0-2.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)44.061.0105.0-17.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (21)60.059.5119.4+0.552%-
vs Weaker (8)60.563.5124.0-3.025%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 107.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers65.4 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.632.7
58.8%
54.4%65.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.89.7
33.7%
36.3%29.1
🏀 Free throws18.313.2
72.1%
78.2%13.2
They take 84.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 120.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers51.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.226.6
58.8%
54.4%53.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.817.0
37.9%
36.3%51.0
🏀 Free throws21.616.0
74.1%
78.2%16.0
They take 90.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 44.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Nov 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWWWWWWWLW
Dallas Mavericks
WWWWLLWLLL
#3
League position
#6
+8.0
Net rating
-0.1
111.6
Offensive rating
117.2
103.6
Defensive rating
117.3
56.0%
Effective FG%
57.9%
48.0%
Opp. effective FG%
55.6%
12.9%
Turnover %
10.9%
22.6%
Off. rebound %
18.2%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.24
33.7%
3-point %
37.9%
64.2%
Assist %
56.4%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence111.6 · 117.2Defence103.6 · 117.3Shooting56.0% · 57.9%3-point %33.7% · 37.9%Ball care12.9% · 10.9%Off. rebounds22.6% · 18.2%Free throws0.22 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Denver Nuggets wins
6
Dallas Mavericks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/11/23AMinnesota Timberwolves89-110
31/10/23HUtah Jazz110-102
29/10/23AOklahoma City Thunder128-95
27/10/23AMemphis Grizzlies108-104
24/10/23HLos Angeles Lakers119-107
13/06/23HMiami Heat94-89
10/06/23AMiami Heat108-95
08/06/23AMiami Heat109-94
05/06/23HMiami Heat108-111
02/06/23HMiami Heat104-93
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/11/23HChicago Bulls114-105
31/10/23AMemphis Grizzlies125-110
28/10/23HBrooklyn Nets125-120
26/10/23ASan Antonio Spurs126-119
09/04/23HSan Antonio Spurs117-138
08/04/23HChicago Bulls112-115
06/04/23HSacramento Kings123-119
02/04/23AAtlanta Hawks130-132 OT
01/04/23AMiami Heat122-129
29/03/23APhiladelphia 76ers108-116

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL80%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game110.8114.5108.3
Allowed / game103.6104.5103.0
Point differential+7.2+10.0+5.3
Avg total214.4219.0211.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%50%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game122.5119.5125.5
Allowed / game113.5112.5114.5
Point differential+9.0+7.0+11.0
Avg total236.0232.0240.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics440100%127.0106.5+20.5
2 Dallas Mavericks440100%122.5113.5+9.0
3 Golden State Warriors65183%117.5109.8+7.7
4 Denver Nuggets54180%110.8103.6+7.2
5 New Orleans Pelicans54180%108.8108.6+0.2
6 Philadelphia 76ers43175%117.8105.5+12.2
7 Los Angeles Clippers53260%121.4109.2+12.2
8 Atlanta Hawks53260%122.8117.2+5.6
9 Orlando Magic53260%107.6104.0+3.6
10 Brooklyn Nets53260%116.8114.4+2.4
11 Los Angeles Lakers53260%114.0114.8-0.8
12 Indiana Pacers53260%119.6123.2-3.6
13 Milwaukee Bucks53260%114.2118.6-4.4
14 San Antonio Spurs53260%115.0121.2-6.2
15 Minnesota Timberwolves42250%105.8100.8+5.0
16 Sacramento Kings42250%119.2116.2+3.0
17 Oklahoma City Thunder63350%116.0116.7-0.7
18 Phoenix Suns52340%112.8111.0+1.8
19 Portland Trail Blazers52340%103.0108.6-5.6
20 New York Knicks62433%103.3103.3+0.0
21 Detroit Pistons62433%110.0110.5-0.5
22 Toronto Raptors62433%104.5106.0-1.5
23 Utah Jazz62433%114.3118.0-3.7
24 Miami Heat62433%107.3112.0-4.7
25 Cleveland Cavaliers62433%105.7110.8-5.2
26 Chicago Bulls62433%105.7112.2-6.5
27 Charlotte Hornets41325%113.8120.5-6.8
28 Houston Rockets41325%107.8116.8-9.0
29 Washington Wizards51420%115.0125.2-10.2
30 Memphis Grizzlies5050%106.6118.0-11.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets40303223125
Dallas Mavericks24313227114
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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