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Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 16 Feb 2023
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 118-109
26-25 35-19 31-30 26-35
Position#2
Record40-18
FormLWLWW
Points / game117.1
Allowed / game112.8
vs
Position#21
Record31-28
FormWWWLL
Points / game113.1
Allowed / game112.4
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks
04 Feb 2027
DEN v DAL
upcoming
24 Nov 2026
DEN v DAL
upcoming
25 Mar 2026
DEN142
DAL135
01 Dec 2025
DEN121
DAL131
22 Nov 2024
DEN120
DAL123
10 Nov 2024
DEN122
DAL120
18 Dec 2023
DEN130
DAL104
03 Nov 2023
DEN125
DAL114
15 Feb 2023
DEN118
DAL109
06 Dec 2022
DEN115
DAL116
29 Oct 2021
DEN106
DAL75
13 Mar 2021
DEN103
DAL116
07 Jan 2021
DEN117
DAL124
13 Apr 2020
DEN v DAL
upcoming
29 Oct 2019
DEN106
DAL109
14 Mar 2019
DEN100
DAL99
18 Dec 2018
DEN126
DAL118
27 Jan 2018
DEN91
DAL89
16 Jan 2018
DEN105
DAL102
06 Feb 2017
DEN110
DAL87
19 Dec 2016
DEN117
DAL107
28 Mar 2016
DEN88
DAL97
06 Mar 2016
DEN116
DAL114
10 Apr 2015
DEN143
DAL144
14 Jan 2015
DEN114
DAL107
05 Mar 2014
DEN115
DAL110
23 Nov 2013
DEN102
DAL100
04 Apr 2013
DEN95
DAL94
19 Mar 2012
DEN95
DAL112
08 Feb 2012
DEN95
DAL105
10 Feb 2011
DEN121
DAL120
03 Nov 2010
DEN101
DAL102
09 Feb 2010
DEN127
DAL91
27 Dec 2009
DEN96
DAL104
13 May 2009
DEN124
DAL110
05 May 2009
DEN117
DAL105
03 May 2009
DEN109
DAL95
13 Jan 2009
DEN99
DAL97
07 Nov 2008
DEN108
DAL105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
99-107
99
107
-8
85avg 114
A26/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
119-126
119
126
-7
116avg 114
A28/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
122-113
122
113
+9
122avg 114
H01/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
134-117
134
117
+17
133avg 114
H03/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
128-108
128
108
+20
126avg 114
H05/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
L
98-128
98
128
-30
91avg 114
A06/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
W
146-112
146
112
+34
155avg 114
H08/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
L
104-115
104
115
-11
94avg 114
A10/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
119-105
119
105
+14
118avg 114
A12/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
112-108
112
108
+4
119avg 114
A14/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-26
26-32
20-23
26-26
38-29
35-29
26-38
20-30
31-35
26-25
36-24
29-29
34-35
36-34
35-22
29-26
35-30
35-22
27-34
31-22
21-32
22-31
28-31
27-34
49-19
30-29
31-27
36-37
26-29
29-36
29-24
20-26
27-34
30-26
37-23
25-22
27-36
38-26
24-21
23-25
232.0Avg total
118.1Scored
113.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (58)117.1112.8229.9+4.369%
Season at home (30)121.4109.4230.8+12.087%
Season away (28)112.4116.4228.8-4.050%
Last 10 (10)118.1113.9232.0+4.260%
Last 5 (5)115.8113.6229.4+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (14)116.9109.7226.6+7.171%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)119.7112.1231.8+7.681%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
99-95
99
95
+4
91avg 101
A27/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
L
100-108
100
108
-8
90avg 101
A29/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
111-105
111
105
+6
99avg 101
H31/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
111-106
111
106
+5
93avg 101
H03/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
113-119
113
119
-6
102avg 101
A05/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
W
124-111
124
111
+13
120avg 101
A07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
110-104
110
104
+6
110avg 101
A09/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
W
122-114
122
114
+8
120avg 101
A11/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
L
128-133 OT
128
133
-5
122avg 101
A12/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
L
121-124
121
124
-3
108avg 101
H14/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-32
22-16
22-21
23-26
23-34
25-32
28-18
24-24
30-27
23-30
30-27
28-21
40-22
30-21
25-33
16-30
23-40
35-33
28-29
27-17
25-37
35-25
29-23
35-26
41-25
19-27
21-26
29-26
45-25
29-31
27-31
21-27
32-34
32-28
24-24
26-28
23-33
31-32
28-35
39-24
225.8Avg total
113.9Scored
111.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (59)113.1112.4225.5+0.653%
Season at home (29)114.0109.6223.5+4.466%
Season away (30)112.2115.2227.4-3.040%
Last 10 (10)113.9111.9225.8+2.060%
Last 5 (5)121.0117.2238.2+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)97.0112.0209.0-15.00%
vs Similar (21)114.5113.8228.3+0.852%
vs Weaker (7)118.7118.9237.6-0.171%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +1.9+1.9
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +1.9+1.9
Denver NuggetsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
53-58
53
58
-5
A26/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
73-58
73
58
+15
A28/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
L
57-60
57
60
-3
H01/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
70-69
70
69
+1
H03/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
70-52
70
52
+18
H05/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
L
43-63
43
63
-20
A06/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
W
79-48
79
48
+31
H08/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
L
55-65
55
65
-10
A10/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
L
57-60
57
60
-3
A12/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
65-62
65
62
+3
A14/02
NBA
121.7Avg total
62.2Scored
59.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.856.0116.7+4.860%-
Last 30 at home (19)62.254.3116.5+7.974%-
Last 30 away (11)58.358.9117.2-0.636%-
Last 10 (10)62.259.5121.7+2.750%-
Last 5 (5)59.859.6119.4+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (14)60.555.2115.7+5.364%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)61.056.6117.6+4.456%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
54-48
54
48
+6
A27/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
L
48-66
48
66
-18
A29/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
L
53-57
53
57
-4
H31/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
70-43
70
43
+27
H03/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
58-73
58
73
-15
A05/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
L
60-62
60
62
-2
A07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
60-52
60
52
+8
A09/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
W
74-56
74
56
+18
A11/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
W
64-62
64
62
+2
A12/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
L
54-65
54
65
-11
H14/02
NBA
117.9Avg total
59.5Scored
58.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.457.8114.2-1.543%-
Last 30 at home (12)57.156.1113.2+1.042%-
Last 30 away (18)55.959.0114.9-3.144%-
Last 10 (10)59.558.4117.9+1.150%-
Last 5 (5)62.459.4121.8+3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)47.555.5103.0-8.050%-
vs Similar (21)56.957.9114.8-1.043%-
vs Weaker (7)57.358.4115.7-1.143%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 118.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers66.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.033.2
59.3%
54.5%66.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.311.7
37.4%
35.8%35.1
🏀 Free throws21.016.6
79.0%
78.1%16.6
They take 87.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 113.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.6 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.324.6
56.8%
54.5%49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.215.2
37.8%
35.8%45.6
🏀 Free throws24.919.1
76.7%
78.1%19.1
They take 83.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Feb 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWLWLWWWLL
Dallas Mavericks
LLWWWLWWLW
#2
League position
#21
+4.1
Net rating
+2.1
115.0
Offensive rating
117.2
110.9
Defensive rating
115.1
58.1%
Effective FG%
56.8%
55.4%
Opp. effective FG%
55.4%
14.4%
Turnover %
12.1%
21.8%
Off. rebound %
21.4%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.30
37.4%
3-point %
37.8%
67.9%
Assist %
59.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence115.0 · 117.2Defence110.9 · 115.1Shooting58.1% · 56.8%3-point %37.4% · 37.8%Ball care14.4% · 12.1%Off. rebounds21.8% · 21.4%Free throws0.24 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Denver Nuggets wins
7
Dallas Mavericks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/23AMiami Heat112-108
12/02/23ACharlotte Hornets119-105
10/02/23AOrlando Magic104-115
08/02/23HMinnesota Timberwolves146-112
06/02/23AMinnesota Timberwolves98-128
05/02/23HAtlanta Hawks128-108
03/02/23HGolden State Warriors134-117
01/02/23HNew Orleans Pelicans122-113
28/01/23APhiladelphia 76ers119-126
26/01/23AMilwaukee Bucks99-107
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/23HMinnesota Timberwolves121-124
12/02/23ASacramento Kings128-133 OT
11/02/23ASacramento Kings122-114
09/02/23ALos Angeles Clippers110-104
07/02/23AUtah Jazz124-111
05/02/23AGolden State Warriors113-119
03/02/23HNew Orleans Pelicans111-106
31/01/23HDetroit Pistons111-105
29/01/23AUtah Jazz100-108
27/01/23APhoenix Suns99-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW69%
HomeLWWWW87%
AwayLLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games583028
Win %69%87%50%
Points / game117.1121.4112.4
Allowed / game112.8109.4116.4
Point differential+4.3+12.0-4.0
Avg total229.9230.8228.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%57%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won74% (19)64% (11)88% (8)
Overtime %3%3%4%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL53%
HomeLLWWL66%
AwayLWWWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games592930
Win %53%66%40%
Points / game113.1114.0112.2
Allowed / game112.4109.6115.2
Point differential+0.6+4.4-3.0
Avg total225.5223.5227.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%24%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (24)67% (12)58% (12)
Overtime %12%7%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics59421771%117.9111.7+6.1
2 Milwaukee Bucks57401770%114.9111.8+3.1
3 Denver Nuggets58401869%117.1112.8+4.3
4 Philadelphia 76ers57381967%114.4110.5+3.9
5 Cleveland Cavaliers61382362%111.8106.1+5.6
6 Memphis Grizzlies57352261%116.1112.2+3.9
7 Brooklyn Nets58342459%114.0112.3+1.7
8 Sacramento Kings57322556%119.5117.2+2.3
9 New York Knicks60332755%114.6112.3+2.2
10 Phoenix Suns59322754%112.8111.2+1.5
11 Miami Heat59322754%108.3108.3+0.0
12 Los Angeles Clippers60322853%111.4111.2+0.2
13 Dallas Mavericks59312853%113.1112.4+0.6
14 New Orleans Pelicans58302852%115.1113.4+1.7
15 Minnesota Timberwolves60312952%115.9115.8+0.1
16 Golden State Warriors58292950%118.6118.5+0.1
17 Atlanta Hawks59293049%116.4116.7-0.4
18 Oklahoma City Thunder57282949%117.9116.2+1.6
19 Utah Jazz60293148%117.6117.2+0.3
20 Portland Trail Blazers58283048%114.9115.0-0.2
21 Toronto Raptors59283147%113.3112.5+0.9
22 Washington Wizards57273047%113.6113.5+0.2
23 Chicago Bulls58263245%113.3113.4-0.1
24 Los Angeles Lakers58263245%117.0118.4-1.5
25 Indiana Pacers60263443%114.5117.1-2.6
26 Orlando Magic59243541%110.9113.7-2.8
27 Charlotte Hornets60174328%112.5118.9-6.4
28 Detroit Pistons59154425%112.3119.9-7.6
29 San Antonio Spurs59144524%112.4122.6-10.2
30 Houston Rockets58134522%109.8118.2-8.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets26353126118
Dallas Mavericks25193035109
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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