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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 20 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 112-115
28-35 27-35 29-17 28-28
Position#4
Record47-21
FormLLWWW
Points / game113.3
Allowed / game106.6
vs
Position#3
Record47-21
FormWWWWL
Points / game114.7
Allowed / game110.2
USANBA· Target Center (Minneapolis)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Minnesota Timberwolves v Denver Nuggets
27 Jan 2027
MIN v DEN
upcoming
31 Dec 2026
MIN v DEN
upcoming
30 Apr 2026
MIN110
DEN98
25 Apr 2026
MIN112
DEN96
23 Apr 2026
MIN113
DEN96
15 Nov 2025
MIN112
DEN123
27 Oct 2025
MIN114
DEN127
25 Jan 2025
MIN133
DEN104
01 Nov 2024
MIN119
DEN116
16 May 2024
MIN115
DEN70
12 May 2024
MIN107
DEN115
10 May 2024
MIN90
DEN117
19 Mar 2024
MIN112
DEN115
01 Nov 2023
MIN110
DEN89
23 Apr 2023
MIN114
DEN108
21 Apr 2023
MIN111
DEN120
05 Feb 2023
MIN128
DEN98
02 Jan 2023
MIN124
DEN111
01 Feb 2022
MIN130
DEN115
30 Oct 2021
MIN91
DEN93
13 May 2021
MIN103
DEN114
03 Jan 2021
MIN109
DEN124
20 Jan 2020
MIN100
DEN107
10 Nov 2019
MIN98
DEN100
02 Feb 2019
MIN106
DEN107
21 Nov 2018
MIN101
DEN103
11 Apr 2018
MIN112
DEN106
27 Dec 2017
MIN128
DEN125
22 Jan 2017
MIN111
DEN108
03 Nov 2016
MIN99
DEN102
06 Jan 2016
MIN74
DEN78
15 Dec 2015
MIN100
DEN112
04 Mar 2015
MIN85
DEN100
05 Jan 2015
MIN101
DEN110
12 Feb 2014
MIN117
DEN90
27 Nov 2013
MIN110
DEN117
12 Dec 2012
MIN108
DEN105
21 Nov 2012
MIN94
DEN101
26 Apr 2012
MIN102
DEN131
25 Mar 2012
MIN117
DEN100
05 Feb 2011
MIN100
DEN113
29 Dec 2010
MIN113
DEN119
10 Mar 2010
MIN102
DEN110
25 Nov 2009
MIN111
DEN124
05 Apr 2009
MIN87
DEN110
29 Nov 2008
MIN97
DEN106
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minnesota Timberwolves winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
110-101
110
101
+9
108avg 108
H29/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
120-124 OT
120
124
-4
116avg 108
H02/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
88-89
88
89
-1
88avg 108
H03/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
119-114
119
114
+5
116avg 108
H05/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
113-111
113
111
+2
101avg 108
A08/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
L
104-113 OT
104
113
-9
92avg 108
A09/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
L
109-120
109
120
-11
95avg 108
A11/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
W
118-100
118
100
+18
112avg 108
A13/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
119-100
119
100
+19
114avg 108
A17/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
114-104
114
104
+10
104avg 108
A19/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-26
26-27
38-32
22-16
22-30
37-30
23-31
33-24
30-18
16-31
22-18
20-22
28-26
27-22
33-34
31-32
33-23
27-26
23-34
30-28
23-25
27-29
30-25
17-18
28-32
40-37
24-22
17-29
21-34
34-29
29-15
34-22
19-19
29-29
34-24
37-28
25-37
28-22
30-24
31-21
219.0Avg total
111.4Scored
107.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (68)113.3106.6219.9+6.769%
Season at home (31)111.7103.0214.7+8.774%
Season away (37)114.6109.6224.2+5.165%
Last 10 (10)111.4107.6219.0+3.860%
Last 5 (5)112.8107.4220.2+5.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (11)110.5101.8212.4+8.764%
vs Weaker (19)115.1107.8222.8+7.368%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
117-96
117
96
+21
121avg 109
H29/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
103-97
103
97
+6
94avg 109
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
124-114
124
114
+10
128avg 109
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
107-117 OT
107
117
-10
98avg 109
H06/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
115-109
115
109
+6
111avg 109
H08/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
142-121
142
121
+21
149avg 109
H10/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
125-119
125
119
+6
123avg 109
H12/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
100-88
100
88
+12
94avg 109
A13/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
117-106
117
106
+11
119avg 109
A16/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
105-107
105
107
-2
96avg 109
A17/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-35
37-20
35-17
17-24
36-20
20-31
27-19
20-27
27-33
31-33
31-23
35-25
32-28
18-37
31-25
21-12
30-28
32-26
28-26
25-29
38-22
40-22
24-44
40-33
32-34
19-34
42-30
32-21
26-19
24-25
22-27
28-17
37-18
21-31
28-30
31-27
34-30
27-28
18-26
26-23
222.9Avg total
115.5Scored
107.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (68)114.7110.2224.9+4.569%
Season at home (33)118.9109.6228.5+9.382%
Season away (35)110.7110.8221.4-0.157%
Last 10 (10)115.5107.4222.9+8.180%
Last 5 (5)117.8108.2226.0+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)108.5104.5213.0+4.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (17)107.9109.0216.9-1.153%
vs Weaker (11)121.4111.5232.9+9.891%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: +5.3+5.3Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: +3.7+3.7
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: +5.3+5.3Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: +3.7+3.7
Minnesota TimberwolvesDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
50-53
50
53
-3
H29/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H02/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H03/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
55-48
55
48
+7
H05/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
60-49
60
49
+11
A08/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
L
50-54
50
54
-4
A09/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
L
68-69
68
69
-1
A11/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
55-63
55
63
-8
A13/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A17/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
L
53-59
53
59
-6
A19/03
NBA
109.6Avg total
54.4Scored
55.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.252.7108.9+3.557%-
Last 30 at home (14)53.251.1104.4+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)58.854.1112.8+4.756%-
Last 10 (10)54.455.2109.6-0.820%-
Last 5 (5)54.858.6113.4-3.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (11)53.651.7105.4+1.964%-
vs Weaker (19)57.653.3110.9+4.453%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H29/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
50-65
50
65
-15
H06/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H08/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
78-44
78
44
+34
H10/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
51-68
51
68
-17
H12/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A13/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
58-49
58
49
+9
A16/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A17/03
NBA
114.3Avg total
58.9Scored
55.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.656.9115.4+1.757%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.955.1115.9+5.871%-
Last 30 away (16)56.658.4115.0-1.944%-
Last 10 (10)58.955.4114.3+3.570%-
Last 5 (5)59.652.6112.2+7.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)58.557.5116.0+1.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)56.957.5114.4-0.653%-
vs Weaker (11)61.255.8117.0+5.464%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 111.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.2 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.729.0
53.0%
54.4%58.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.312.4
36.2%
36.3%37.2
🏀 Free throws20.416.2
79.4%
78.2%16.2
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 115.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀11%
🏀🏀 2-pointers67.2 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 11% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.833.6
58.1%
54.4%67.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.311.9
39.3%
36.3%35.7
🏀 Free throws15.612.6
80.8%
78.2%12.6
They take 88.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minnesota Timberwolves
WWWLLWWLLW
Denver Nuggets
LWWWWWLWWW
#4
League position
#3
+3.9
Net rating
+8.2
113.2
Offensive rating
117.3
109.4
Defensive rating
109.1
53.5%
Effective FG%
58.4%
52.6%
Opp. effective FG%
51.1%
11.1%
Turnover %
11.3%
24.0%
Off. rebound %
19.8%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.18
36.2%
3-point %
39.3%
65.0%
Assist %
67.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence113.2 · 117.3Defence109.4 · 109.1Shooting53.5% · 58.4%3-point %36.2% · 39.3%Ball care11.1% · 11.3%Off. rebounds24.0% · 19.8%Free throws0.23 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)60% · 80%
■ Minnesota Timberwolves   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/24AUtah Jazz114-104
17/03/24AUtah Jazz119-100
13/03/24ALos Angeles Clippers118-100
11/03/24ALos Angeles Lakers109-120
09/03/24ACleveland Cavaliers104-113 OT
08/03/24AIndiana Pacers113-111
05/03/24HPortland Trail Blazers119-114
03/03/24HLos Angeles Clippers88-89
02/03/24HSacramento Kings120-124 OT
29/02/24HMemphis Grizzlies110-101
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/03/24ADallas Mavericks105-107
16/03/24ASan Antonio Spurs117-106
13/03/24AMiami Heat100-88
12/03/24HToronto Raptors125-119
10/03/24HUtah Jazz142-121
08/03/24HBoston Celtics115-109
06/03/24HPhoenix Suns107-117 OT
03/03/24ALos Angeles Lakers124-114
01/03/24HMiami Heat103-97
29/02/24HSacramento Kings117-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW69%
HomeWWLLW74%
AwayLLWWW65%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games683137
Win %69%74%65%
Points / game113.3111.7114.6
Allowed / game106.6103.0109.6
Point differential+6.7+8.7+5.1
Avg total219.9214.7224.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%42%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (18)45% (11)71% (7)
Overtime %7%6%8%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL69%
HomeWLWWW82%
AwayWWWWL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games683335
Win %69%82%57%
Points / game114.7118.9110.7
Allowed / game110.2109.6110.8
Point differential+4.5+9.3-0.1
Avg total224.9228.5221.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%48%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (17)40% (5)50% (12)
Overtime %1%3%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics67541381%121.1109.1+12.0
2 Oklahoma City Thunder67472070%120.7113.1+7.6
3 Minnesota Timberwolves68472169%113.3106.6+6.7
4 Denver Nuggets68472169%114.7110.2+4.5
5 Milwaukee Bucks66432365%120.3117.0+3.3
6 Cleveland Cavaliers68432563%113.5109.5+4.1
7 Los Angeles Clippers67422563%116.5112.6+3.9
8 New Orleans Pelicans66412562%116.2110.3+5.9
9 New York Knicks67412661%111.9107.3+4.6
10 Orlando Magic69412859%110.8108.8+2.0
11 Sacramento Kings66392759%118.1116.8+1.2
12 Phoenix Suns67392858%117.1114.7+2.4
13 Dallas Mavericks69402958%118.7117.3+1.4
14 Philadelphia 76ers68383056%114.8112.3+2.5
15 Miami Heat68373154%109.8109.3+0.5
16 Indiana Pacers67363154%122.8121.1+1.7
17 Golden State Warriors67353252%118.3116.8+1.5
18 Los Angeles Lakers67353252%117.4118.2-0.8
19 Chicago Bulls69343549%112.0113.6-1.5
20 Houston Rockets68333549%113.6112.5+1.1
21 Atlanta Hawks68303844%119.0121.1-2.0
22 Utah Jazz68293943%117.2120.6-3.4
23 Brooklyn Nets69264338%111.4113.9-2.5
24 Toronto Raptors68234534%113.7118.0-4.3
25 Memphis Grizzlies69234633%105.9112.4-6.6
26 Portland Trail Blazers68194928%107.7115.8-8.1
27 Charlotte Hornets69175225%106.6116.7-10.1
28 San Antonio Spurs69155422%112.3119.7-7.4
29 Detroit Pistons68125618%111.7120.1-8.4
30 Washington Wizards69115816%113.8124.2-10.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minnesota Timberwolves28272928112
Denver Nuggets35351728115
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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