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Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 05 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 03:00
Scheduled
Position#13
Record4-3
FormLWWLW
Points / game115.4
Allowed / game114.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.8/10
Around normal
4.2/10
Below normal
Position#16
Record5-4
FormWWLLW
Points / game112.1
Allowed / game110.9
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks
04 Feb 2027
DEN v DAL
upcoming
24 Nov 2026
DEN v DAL
upcoming
25 Mar 2026
DEN142
DAL135
01 Dec 2025
DEN121
DAL131
22 Nov 2024
DEN120
DAL123
10 Nov 2024
DEN122
DAL120
18 Dec 2023
DEN130
DAL104
03 Nov 2023
DEN125
DAL114
15 Feb 2023
DEN118
DAL109
06 Dec 2022
DEN115
DAL116
29 Oct 2021
DEN106
DAL75
13 Mar 2021
DEN103
DAL116
07 Jan 2021
DEN117
DAL124
13 Apr 2020
DEN v DAL
upcoming
29 Oct 2019
DEN106
DAL109
14 Mar 2019
DEN100
DAL99
18 Dec 2018
DEN126
DAL118
27 Jan 2018
DEN91
DAL89
16 Jan 2018
DEN105
DAL102
06 Feb 2017
DEN110
DAL87
19 Dec 2016
DEN117
DAL107
28 Mar 2016
DEN88
DAL97
06 Mar 2016
DEN116
DAL114
10 Apr 2015
DEN143
DAL144
14 Jan 2015
DEN114
DAL107
05 Mar 2014
DEN115
DAL110
23 Nov 2013
DEN102
DAL100
04 Apr 2013
DEN95
DAL94
19 Mar 2012
DEN95
DAL112
08 Feb 2012
DEN95
DAL105
10 Feb 2011
DEN121
DAL120
03 Nov 2010
DEN101
DAL102
09 Feb 2010
DEN127
DAL91
27 Dec 2009
DEN96
DAL104
13 May 2009
DEN124
DAL110
05 May 2009
DEN117
DAL105
03 May 2009
DEN109
DAL95
13 Jan 2009
DEN99
DAL97
07 Nov 2008
DEN108
DAL105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
96-112
96
112
-16
80avg 114
A26/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
125-113
125
113
+12
123avg 114
H28/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
98-110
98
110
-12
90avg 114
A01/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#6
L
84-96
84
96
-12
62avg 114
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#18
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 114
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 114
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#18
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 114
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#23
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 114
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#8
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 114
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#14
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 114
H05/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-22
31-28
24-32
18-30
34-29
26-22
37-24
28-38
30-29
20-28
24-25
24-28
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
226.5Avg total
112.7Scored
113.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)115.4114.7230.1+0.757%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (3)105.0102.3207.3+2.767%
Last 10 (10)112.7113.8226.5-1.150%
Last 5 (5)116.6114.4231.0+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)119.8117.0236.8+2.850%
vs Similar ◀ (16)117.1114.7231.8+2.462%
vs Weaker (10)129.3117.8247.1+11.590%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
149-128
149
128
+21
129avg 100
H13/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
110-128
110
128
-18
97avg 100
A22/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#20
W
121-105
121
105
+16
119avg 100
A23/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#5
L
106-122
106
122
-16
79avg 100
H25/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#21
W
113-109
113
109
+4
111avg 100
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#6
W
120-96
120
96
+24
114avg 100
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
116-111
116
111
+5
111avg 100
H31/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
L
100-115
100
115
-15
85avg 100
H03/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#5
L
111-112
111
112
-1
98avg 100
A05/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#28
W
112-100
112
100
+12
104avg 100
H07/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
45-34
35-22
39-32
30-40
26-32
12-38
38-30
34-28
44-27
33-16
21-33
23-29
31-32
29-36
29-24
17-30
23-27
30-25
30-32
30-25
33-30
32-29
29-22
26-15
27-20
17-31
32-33
40-27
18-19
35-35
21-27
26-34
26-32
25-36
29-22
31-22
26-28
31-29
32-19
23-24
228.4Avg total
115.8Scored
112.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)112.1110.9223.0+1.256%
Season at home (5)110.8108.8219.6+2.060%
Season away (4)113.8113.5227.2+0.250%
Last 10 (10)115.8112.6228.4+3.260%
Last 5 (5)111.8106.8218.6+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)114.2124.5238.7-10.319%
vs Similar ◀ (5)119.8117.6237.4+2.260%
vs Weaker (4)111.5107.2218.8+4.275%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: +0.6+0.6
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: +0.6+0.6
Denver NuggetsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
54-50
54
50
+4
A26/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
60-51
60
51
+9
H28/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A01/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#6
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#18
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#18
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#23
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#8
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#14
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
115.5Avg total
58.3Scored
57.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.058.9118.8+1.150%-
Last 30 at home (18)61.860.3122.1+1.544%-
Last 30 away (12)57.256.8114.0+0.558%-
Last 10 (10)58.357.2115.5+1.160%-
Last 5 (5)62.859.4122.2+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)61.259.0120.2+2.250%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)56.657.6114.2-1.050%-
vs Weaker (10)64.860.8125.6+4.050%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
80-56
80
56
+24
H13/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
38-70
38
70
-32
A22/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#20
W
77-43
77
43
+34
A23/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#5
L
60-68
60
68
-8
H25/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#21
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#6
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H31/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
L
53-54
53
54
-1
H03/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#5
L
51-68
51
68
-17
A05/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#28
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H07/11
NBA
115.6Avg total
57.8Scored
57.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.760.8118.4-3.137%-
Last 30 at home (13)60.161.0121.1-0.938%-
Last 30 away (17)55.860.6116.4-4.835%-
Last 10 (10)57.857.8115.6+0.040%-
Last 5 (5)54.057.8111.8-3.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)56.062.7118.6-6.729%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)63.060.2123.2+2.860%-
vs Weaker (4)60.051.5111.5+8.550%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 111.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws23.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.128.5
54.7%
54.0%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.110.2
31.8%
35.0%30.6
🏀 Free throws29.223.6
80.8%
76.6%23.6
They take 84.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 116.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.929.2
54.2%
54.0%58.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.113.5
36.4%
35.0%40.5
🏀 Free throws22.317.6
78.9%
76.6%17.6
They take 91.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WLWWLWLLWL
Dallas Mavericks
WLLWWWLWLW
#13
League position
#16
-3.3
Net rating
-0.1
107.0
Offensive rating
109.4
110.3
Defensive rating
109.5
52.0%
Effective FG%
54.3%
53.9%
Opp. effective FG%
52.6%
12.4%
Turnover %
13.6%
14.2%
Off. rebound %
24.3%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.25
31.8%
3-point %
36.4%
66.1%
Assist %
63.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence107.0 · 109.4Defence110.3 · 109.5Shooting52.0% · 54.3%3-point %31.8% · 36.4%Ball care12.4% · 13.6%Off. rebounds14.2% · 24.3%Free throws0.35 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Denver Nuggets wins
4
Dallas Mavericks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96
01/05/26AMinnesota Timberwolves98-110
28/04/26HMinnesota Timberwolves125-113
26/04/26AMinnesota Timberwolves96-112
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HUtah Jazz112-100
05/11/26ASan Antonio Spurs111-112
03/11/26HSacramento Kings100-115
31/10/26HHouston Rockets116-111
29/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder120-96
26/10/26AMiami Heat113-109
25/10/26HSan Antonio Spurs106-122
23/10/26AIndiana Pacers121-105
22/10/26AHouston Rockets110-128
13/04/26HChicago Bulls149-128

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW57%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %57%50%67%
Points / game115.4123.2105.0
Allowed / game114.7124.0102.3
Point differential+0.7-0.8+2.7
Avg total230.1247.2207.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %14%25%0%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW56%
HomeLWWLW60%
AwayLWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %56%60%50%
Points / game112.1110.8113.8
Allowed / game110.9108.8113.5
Point differential+1.2+2.0+0.2
Avg total223.0219.6227.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%40%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers108280%122.0114.3+7.7
2 Philadelphia 76ers108280%109.4106.6+2.8
3 Houston Rockets97278%117.9107.6+10.3
4 Boston Celtics97278%114.8105.1+9.7
5 San Antonio Spurs97278%117.7108.7+9.0
6 Oklahoma City Thunder97278%112.0107.4+4.6
7 Detroit Pistons86275%111.1101.8+9.4
8 Portland Trail Blazers86275%121.4112.4+9.0
9 Minnesota Timberwolves107370%118.4107.7+10.7
10 Memphis Grizzlies96367%117.9111.8+6.1
11 Golden State Warriors96367%117.8113.0+4.8
12 Atlanta Hawks106460%118.1114.9+3.2
13 Denver Nuggets74357%115.4114.7+0.7
14 Toronto Raptors95456%118.2112.8+5.4
15 Cleveland Cavaliers95456%119.2114.7+4.6
16 Dallas Mavericks95456%112.1110.9+1.2
17 New York Knicks84450%110.0105.1+4.9
18 New Orleans Pelicans94544%120.2118.8+1.4
19 Washington Wizards94544%111.4112.3-0.9
20 Indiana Pacers93633%111.2114.2-3.0
21 Miami Heat93633%116.0122.6-6.6
22 Charlotte Hornets103730%96.3110.2-13.9
23 Phoenix Suns72529%113.9121.4-7.6
24 Brooklyn Nets82625%106.6112.9-6.2
25 Orlando Magic82625%105.5115.0-9.5
26 Los Angeles Clippers81712%109.1115.6-6.5
27 Chicago Bulls81712%111.6129.6-18.0
28 Utah Jazz91811%106.9118.2-11.3
29 Milwaukee Bucks91811%109.7122.1-12.4
30 Sacramento Kings91811%109.2123.3-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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