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Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 14 Apr 2020
Tip-off: 01:00
Postponed
Position#7
Record47-22
FormLWLWL
Points / game110.3
Allowed / game106.9
vs
Position#13
Record42-30
FormWWLLW
Points / game115.8
Allowed / game109.8
USANBA· Pepsi Center
NBA2019-20
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks
04 Feb 2027
DEN v DAL
upcoming
24 Nov 2026
DEN v DAL
upcoming
25 Mar 2026
DEN142
DAL135
01 Dec 2025
DEN121
DAL131
22 Nov 2024
DEN120
DAL123
10 Nov 2024
DEN122
DAL120
18 Dec 2023
DEN130
DAL104
03 Nov 2023
DEN125
DAL114
15 Feb 2023
DEN118
DAL109
06 Dec 2022
DEN115
DAL116
29 Oct 2021
DEN106
DAL75
13 Mar 2021
DEN103
DAL116
07 Jan 2021
DEN117
DAL124
13 Apr 2020
DEN v DAL
upcoming
29 Oct 2019
DEN106
DAL109
14 Mar 2019
DEN100
DAL99
18 Dec 2018
DEN126
DAL118
27 Jan 2018
DEN91
DAL89
16 Jan 2018
DEN105
DAL102
06 Feb 2017
DEN110
DAL87
19 Dec 2016
DEN117
DAL107
21 Oct 2016
DEN101
DAL75
28 Mar 2016
DEN88
DAL97
06 Mar 2016
DEN116
DAL114
10 Apr 2015
DEN143
DAL144
14 Jan 2015
DEN114
DAL107
05 Mar 2014
DEN115
DAL110
23 Nov 2013
DEN102
DAL100
04 Apr 2013
DEN95
DAL94
19 Mar 2012
DEN95
DAL112
08 Feb 2012
DEN95
DAL105
10 Feb 2011
DEN121
DAL120
03 Nov 2010
DEN101
DAL102
09 Feb 2010
DEN127
DAL91
27 Dec 2009
DEN96
DAL104
13 May 2009
DEN124
DAL110
05 May 2009
DEN117
DAL105
03 May 2009
DEN109
DAL95
13 Jan 2009
DEN99
DAL97
07 Nov 2008
DEN108
DAL105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#8
L
101-113
101
113
-12
A22/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#27
W
128-116
128
116
+12
H23/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#25
W
115-98
115
98
+17
H26/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#5
L
103-132
103
132
-29
A29/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
W
133-118
133
118
+15
H01/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#30
L
100-116
100
116
-16
H04/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#23
W
114-112
114
112
+2
A06/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
L
102-104
102
104
-2
A08/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
109-95
109
95
+14
H10/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#13
L
97-113
97
113
-16
A12/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-27
31-21
29-30
24-35
43-38
30-27
24-22
31-29
29-23
30-23
23-26
33-26
27-37
29-29
23-32
24-34
40-32
33-37
27-27
33-22
25-26
33-23
23-33
19-34
31-34
29-17
20-31
34-30
33-23
28-35
22-27
19-19
39-24
23-30
14-17
33-24
29-33
21-24
35-27
12-29
221.9Avg total
110.2Scored
111.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (69)110.3106.9217.2+3.468%
Season at home (34)111.3105.3216.5+6.076%
Season away (35)109.3108.5217.8+0.960%
Last 10 (10)110.2111.7221.9-1.550%
Last 5 (5)104.4108.0212.4-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)121.2112.0233.2+9.275%
vs Similar ◀ (15)109.0109.7218.7-0.760%
vs Weaker (11)113.5110.6224.2+2.964%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#27
W
139-123
139
123
+16
H25/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#18
W
109-103
109
103
+6
A27/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#6
L
118-126
118
126
-8
A29/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#27
W
111-91
111
91
+20
A01/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
L
107-109
107
109
-2
A03/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
127-123 OT
127
123
+4
H05/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
121-96
121
96
+25
H07/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#9
L
109-112
109
112
-3
H08/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#18
L
109-119
109
119
-10
A11/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#7
W
113-97
113
97
+16
H12/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
41-27
40-38
29-31
29-27
36-20
23-29
29-28
21-26
31-31
24-32
38-25
25-38
28-24
35-20
18-21
30-26
29-19
29-29
17-33
32-28
24-22
33-33
30-30
25-27
33-28
28-21
34-16
26-31
26-31
26-24
32-31
25-26
29-27
30-27
26-29
24-36
33-29
24-21
27-35
29-12
226.2Avg total
116.3Scored
109.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (72)115.8109.8225.6+5.958%
Season at home (36)115.7109.2224.8+6.556%
Season away (36)115.9110.5226.4+5.461%
Last 10 (10)116.3109.9226.2+6.460%
Last 5 (5)115.8109.4225.2+6.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)112.8114.2227.0-1.338%
vs Weaker (17)119.0109.8228.8+9.271%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +5.2+5.2Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -1.1-1.1
Denver NuggetsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#8
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A22/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#27
W
73-65
73
65
+8
H23/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#25
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H26/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#5
L
56-66
56
66
-10
A29/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
W
73-69
73
69
+4
H01/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#30
W
58-49
58
49
+9
H04/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#23
W
60-51
60
51
+9
A06/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A08/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H10/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#13
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A12/03
NBA
116.3Avg total
60.0Scored
56.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.456.0112.4+0.450%-
Last 30 at home (14)58.053.2111.2+4.864%-
Last 30 away (16)55.058.5113.5-3.538%-
Last 10 (10)60.056.3116.3+3.770%-
Last 5 (5)58.253.8112.0+4.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)62.562.8125.2-0.250%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)53.555.2108.7-1.733%-
vs Weaker (11)58.154.7112.8+3.473%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#27
W
81-65
81
65
+16
H25/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#18
W
59-49
59
49
+10
A27/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#6
L
55-63
55
63
-8
A29/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#27
W
63-44
63
44
+19
A01/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
58-48
58
48
+10
A03/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
57-55
57
55
+2
H05/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
61-49
61
49
+12
H07/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#9
L
52-55
52
55
-3
H08/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#18
W
59-54
59
54
+5
A11/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#7
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H12/03
NBA
113.4Avg total
60.2Scored
53.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.356.3116.6+4.067%-
Last 30 at home (14)58.158.4116.5-0.250%-
Last 30 away (16)62.254.5116.8+7.881%-
Last 10 (10)60.253.2113.4+7.080%-
Last 5 (5)57.252.6109.8+4.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)54.258.8113.0-4.731%-
vs Weaker (17)65.154.4119.4+10.794%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 110.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.2 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.4 points a game
51%
33%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.432.1
57.9%
52.3%64.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.510.7
36.3%
35.7%32.1
🏀 Free throws18.213.9
76.4%
77.2%13.9
They take 84.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 116.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers48.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.4 points a game
51%
33%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.426.3
55.5%
52.3%52.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.016.0
36.4%
35.7%48.0
🏀 Free throws21.615.7
72.7%
77.2%15.7
They take 91.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 44.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Apr 2020 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWLWLWLWWL
Dallas Mavericks
WLLWWLWLWW
#7
League position
#13
-1.5
Net rating
+6.1
111.4
Offensive rating
111.3
113.0
Defensive rating
105.2
56.7%
Effective FG%
55.0%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
53.1%
15.3%
Turnover %
12.2%
23.2%
Off. rebound %
18.8%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.24
36.3%
3-point %
36.4%
62.6%
Assist %
60.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence111.4 · 111.3Defence113.0 · 105.2Shooting56.7% · 55.0%3-point %36.3% · 36.4%Ball care15.3% · 12.2%Off. rebounds23.2% · 18.8%Free throws0.21 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Denver Nuggets wins
4
Dallas Mavericks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/20ADallas Mavericks97-113
10/03/20HMilwaukee Bucks109-95
08/03/20ACleveland Cavaliers102-104
06/03/20ACharlotte Hornets114-112
04/03/20HGolden State Warriors100-116
01/03/20HToronto Raptors133-118
29/02/20ALos Angeles Clippers103-132
26/02/20HDetroit Pistons115-98
23/02/20HMinnesota Timberwolves128-116
22/02/20AOklahoma City Thunder101-113
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/20HDenver Nuggets113-97
11/03/20ASan Antonio Spurs109-119
08/03/20HIndiana Pacers109-112
07/03/20HMemphis Grizzlies121-96
05/03/20HNew Orleans Pelicans127-123 OT
03/03/20AChicago Bulls107-109
01/03/20AMinnesota Timberwolves111-91
29/02/20AMiami Heat118-126
27/02/20ASan Antonio Spurs109-103
25/02/20HMinnesota Timberwolves139-123

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2019-20
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL68%
HomeWWWLW76%
AwayLLWLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games693435
Win %68%76%60%
Points / game110.3111.3109.3
Allowed / game106.9105.3108.5
Point differential+3.4+6.0+0.9
Avg total217.2216.5217.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+26%35%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (20)57% (7)62% (13)
Overtime %9%6%11%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2019-20
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW58%
HomeWWWLW56%
AwayWLWLL61%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games723636
Win %58%56%61%
Points / game115.8115.7115.9
Allowed / game109.8109.2110.5
Point differential+5.9+6.5+5.4
Avg total225.6224.8226.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%31%39%
Close games (≤5 pts) won27% (22)25% (12)30% (10)
Overtime %6%11%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks70581283%118.8107.2+11.6
2 Los Angeles Lakers69521775%113.7106.6+7.1
3 Toronto Raptors68482071%113.1107.0+6.1
4 Boston Celtics68472169%112.9105.7+7.2
5 Denver Nuggets69472268%110.3106.9+3.4
6 Los Angeles Clippers67442366%115.1109.6+5.5
7 Miami Heat70452564%112.4108.5+3.9
8 Houston Rockets69432662%118.5114.8+3.7
9 Oklahoma City Thunder67412661%110.4108.5+1.9
10 Philadelphia 76ers69422761%109.4106.6+2.8
11 Indiana Pacers69422761%109.9107.6+2.3
12 Utah Jazz68412760%111.2109.1+2.2
13 Dallas Mavericks72423058%115.8109.8+5.9
14 Memphis Grizzlies68333549%112.3113.7-1.5
15 New Orleans Pelicans69333648%116.9117.1-0.2
16 Brooklyn Nets67323548%110.5111.1-0.6
17 Orlando Magic71333846%105.9106.7-0.8
18 Sacramento Kings68303844%109.5111.2-1.7
19 Portland Trail Blazers70304043%113.5115.3-1.9
20 San Antonio Spurs68293943%112.5114.7-2.2
21 Phoenix Suns69284141%112.3113.6-1.3
22 Washington Wizards68264238%115.2118.7-3.5
23 Chicago Bulls70244634%106.9109.8-2.8
24 Charlotte Hornets70244634%102.9109.4-6.5
25 Detroit Pistons71234832%107.1110.8-3.7
26 New York Knicks70224831%105.7112.0-6.3
27 Minnesota Timberwolves68204829%113.1117.7-4.6
28 Atlanta Hawks72215129%110.6119.2-8.5
29 Cleveland Cavaliers68194928%106.2114.8-8.6
30 Golden State Warriors70175324%106.7115.1-8.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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