PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 26 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 142-135
34-33 34-26 43-41 31-35
Position#6
Record45-28
FormWLWWW
Points / game120.9
Allowed / game116.5
vs
Position#24
Record23-49
FormWLLLL
Points / game113.8
Allowed / game119.0
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks
04 Feb 2027
DEN v DAL
upcoming
24 Nov 2026
DEN v DAL
upcoming
25 Mar 2026
DEN142
DAL135
01 Dec 2025
DEN121
DAL131
22 Nov 2024
DEN120
DAL123
10 Nov 2024
DEN122
DAL120
18 Dec 2023
DEN130
DAL104
03 Nov 2023
DEN125
DAL114
15 Feb 2023
DEN118
DAL109
06 Dec 2022
DEN115
DAL116
29 Oct 2021
DEN106
DAL75
13 Mar 2021
DEN103
DAL116
07 Jan 2021
DEN117
DAL124
13 Apr 2020
DEN v DAL
upcoming
29 Oct 2019
DEN106
DAL109
14 Mar 2019
DEN100
DAL99
18 Dec 2018
DEN126
DAL118
27 Jan 2018
DEN91
DAL89
16 Jan 2018
DEN105
DAL102
06 Feb 2017
DEN110
DAL87
19 Dec 2016
DEN117
DAL107
28 Mar 2016
DEN88
DAL97
06 Mar 2016
DEN116
DAL114
10 Apr 2015
DEN143
DAL144
14 Jan 2015
DEN114
DAL107
05 Mar 2014
DEN115
DAL110
23 Nov 2013
DEN102
DAL100
04 Apr 2013
DEN95
DAL94
19 Mar 2012
DEN95
DAL112
08 Feb 2012
DEN95
DAL105
10 Feb 2011
DEN121
DAL120
03 Nov 2010
DEN101
DAL102
09 Feb 2010
DEN127
DAL91
27 Dec 2009
DEN96
DAL104
13 May 2009
DEN124
DAL110
05 May 2009
DEN117
DAL105
03 May 2009
DEN109
DAL95
13 Jan 2009
DEN99
DAL97
07 Nov 2008
DEN108
DAL105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
103-142
103
142
-39
93avg 113
H07/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
126-129
126
129
-3
120avg 113
A09/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
129-93
129
93
+36
131avg 113
H12/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
136-131
136
131
+5
134avg 113
A13/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
125-127 OT
125
127
-2
118avg 113
A15/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
124-96
124
96
+28
128avg 113
H18/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
118-125
118
125
-7
117avg 113
A19/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
121-115
121
115
+6
117avg 113
H21/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
128-112
128
112
+16
131avg 113
H22/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
125-123
125
123
+2
128avg 113
A25/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-27
23-38
28-40
23-37
40-37
20-29
33-30
33-33
24-20
29-27
40-22
36-24
25-37
28-32
41-37
42-25
26-34
24-27
37-26
31-31
38-22
34-18
28-31
24-25
30-31
30-29
31-39
27-26
27-30
30-23
28-41
36-21
42-40
33-29
32-24
21-19
28-35
39-22
30-38
28-28
242.8Avg total
123.5Scored
119.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (73)120.9116.5237.4+4.462%
Season at home (34)118.4114.0232.3+4.462%
Season away (39)123.1118.7241.7+4.462%
Last 10 (10)123.5119.3242.8+4.260%
Last 5 (5)123.2114.2237.4+9.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)119.3125.7245.0-6.30%
vs Similar (16)117.8116.9234.7+0.944%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)122.4111.4233.7+11.082%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#5
L
100-120
100
120
-20
88avg 103
A07/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
92-122
92
122
-30
82avg 103
A08/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
112-124
112
124
-12
107avg 103
A10/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
120-112
120
112
+8
118avg 103
A13/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
105-138
105
138
-33
97avg 103
H13/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
130-120
130
120
+10
124avg 103
A15/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
111-129
111
129
-18
97avg 103
A17/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
120-135
120
135
-15
115avg 103
H19/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
131-138 OT
131
138
-7
117avg 103
H22/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
131-137 OT
131
137
-6
119avg 103
H24/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-21
31-37
27-32
20-30
29-36
15-21
22-31
26-34
26-40
27-24
38-31
21-29
34-22
31-32
21-30
34-28
21-38
29-29
33-41
22-30
35-31
25-28
40-27
30-34
26-32
28-35
32-36
25-26
30-37
26-30
26-34
38-34
42-32
30-31
27-37
23-22
31-34
42-29
25-35
28-28
242.7Avg total
115.2Scored
127.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (72)113.8119.0232.7-5.232%
Season at home (37)115.3118.8234.1-3.538%
Season away (35)112.1119.2231.3-7.126%
Last 10 (10)115.2127.5242.7-12.320%
Last 5 (5)124.6131.8256.4-7.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)111.6121.5233.1-10.013%
vs Similar (5)121.6123.0244.6-1.460%
vs Weaker (2)122.0122.0244.0+0.050%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: +1.6+1.6Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: -4.3-4.3Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -2.8-2.8
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: -2.7-2.7Q2Q2: +1.6+1.6Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: -4.3-4.3Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -2.8-2.8
Denver NuggetsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
52-65
52
65
-13
H07/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
60-66
60
66
-6
A09/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H12/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
53-69
53
69
-16
A13/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A15/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
72-40
72
40
+32
H18/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
D
60-60
60
60
+0
A19/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
57-53
57
53
+4
H21/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
75-69
75
69
+6
H22/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
67-57
67
57
+10
A25/03
NBA
118.6Avg total
59.9Scored
58.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.656.4115.0+2.253%-
Last 30 at home (15)58.954.1113.1+4.867%-
Last 30 away (15)58.358.7117.0-0.540%-
Last 10 (10)59.958.7118.6+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)66.255.8122.0+10.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)58.059.3117.3-1.333%-
vs Similar (16)55.255.9111.1-0.750%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)63.756.5120.2+7.364%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#5
L
53-58
53
58
-5
A07/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
44-57
44
57
-13
A08/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
53-64
53
64
-11
A10/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
65-54
65
54
+11
A13/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
50-67
50
67
-17
H13/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
60-59
60
59
+1
A15/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
54-67
54
67
-13
A17/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
56-67
56
67
-11
H19/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
72-63
72
63
+9
H22/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
73-63
73
63
+10
H24/03
NBA
119.9Avg total
58.0Scored
61.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.961.9119.9-4.033%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.561.9118.4-5.429%-
Last 30 away (16)59.261.9121.1-2.838%-
Last 10 (10)58.061.9119.9-3.940%-
Last 5 (5)63.063.8126.8-0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)56.661.6118.1-5.026%-
vs Similar (5)61.062.0123.0-1.060%-
vs Weaker (2)66.066.0132.0+0.050%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 123.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.529.8
57.9%
54.8%59.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.114.5
39.1%
35.8%43.5
🏀 Free throws26.220.4
77.9%
78.1%20.4
They take 88.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 115.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.430.7
52.6%
54.8%61.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.912.1
36.8%
35.8%36.3
🏀 Free throws22.117.5
79.2%
78.1%17.5
They take 91.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWWLWLWWLL
Dallas Mavericks
LLLLWLWLLL
#6
League position
#24
+4.0
Net rating
-11.5
118.9
Offensive rating
107.8
114.8
Defensive rating
119.3
58.2%
Effective FG%
53.5%
54.3%
Opp. effective FG%
59.4%
11.5%
Turnover %
14.5%
22.9%
Off. rebound %
23.0%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.24
39.1%
3-point %
36.8%
72.7%
Assist %
64.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence118.9 · 107.8Defence114.8 · 119.3Shooting58.2% · 53.5%3-point %39.1% · 36.8%Ball care11.5% · 14.5%Off. rebounds22.9% · 23.0%Free throws0.30 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)60% · 20%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Denver Nuggets wins
4
Dallas Mavericks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/03/26APhoenix Suns125-123
22/03/26HPortland Trail Blazers128-112
21/03/26HToronto Raptors121-115
19/03/26AMemphis Grizzlies118-125
18/03/26HPhiladelphia 76ers124-96
15/03/26ALos Angeles Lakers125-127 OT
13/03/26ASan Antonio Spurs136-131
12/03/26HHouston Rockets129-93
09/03/26AOklahoma City Thunder126-129
07/03/26HNew York Knicks103-142
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/03/26HGolden State Warriors131-137 OT
22/03/26HLos Angeles Clippers131-138 OT
19/03/26HAtlanta Hawks120-135
17/03/26ANew Orleans Pelicans111-129
15/03/26ACleveland Cavaliers130-120
13/03/26HCleveland Cavaliers105-138
13/03/26AMemphis Grizzlies120-112
10/03/26AAtlanta Hawks112-124
08/03/26AToronto Raptors92-122
07/03/26ABoston Celtics100-120

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW62%
HomeLWWWW62%
AwayLWLLW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games733439
Win %62%62%62%
Points / game120.9118.4123.1
Allowed / game116.5114.0118.7
Point differential+4.4+4.4+4.4
Avg total237.4232.3241.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%35%28%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (26)44% (9)53% (17)
Overtime %10%6%13%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL32%
HomeLLLLL38%
AwayLLWWL26%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games723735
Win %32%38%26%
Points / game113.8115.3112.1
Allowed / game119.0118.8119.2
Point differential-5.2-3.5-7.1
Avg total232.7234.1231.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%14%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (17)56% (9)38% (8)
Overtime %8%14%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder71561579%118.5107.8+10.6
2 San Antonio Spurs71531875%119.2111.4+7.8
3 Detroit Pistons72522072%117.5109.8+7.7
4 Boston Celtics72482467%114.2107.0+7.2
5 Los Angeles Lakers72472565%116.6114.9+1.7
6 New York Knicks71462565%117.0110.5+6.6
7 Denver Nuggets73452862%120.9116.5+4.4
8 Cleveland Cavaliers73452862%119.0115.0+4.0
9 Minnesota Timberwolves73452862%118.3114.4+3.8
10 Houston Rockets72432960%114.1110.2+3.8
11 Toronto Raptors70403057%114.4112.2+2.2
12 Atlanta Hawks73413256%118.4116.6+1.8
13 Phoenix Suns72403256%112.7110.8+1.9
14 Philadelphia 76ers73403355%116.2116.5-0.4
15 Miami Heat72393354%120.3117.3+3.1
16 Orlando Magic70373353%115.6114.6+0.9
17 Charlotte Hornets72383453%116.4111.8+4.6
18 Los Angeles Clippers72363650%113.8112.8+1.0
19 Portland Trail Blazers73363749%115.3117.0-1.6
20 Golden State Warriors72343847%115.1114.9+0.2
21 Milwaukee Bucks71294241%110.8116.4-5.6
22 Chicago Bulls72294340%116.3120.8-4.5
23 New Orleans Pelicans73254834%115.5119.2-3.7
24 Memphis Grizzlies72244833%115.1119.1-4.0
25 Dallas Mavericks72234932%113.8119.0-5.2
26 Utah Jazz73215229%117.3125.2-7.8
27 Sacramento Kings73195426%110.8121.2-10.4
28 Brooklyn Nets72175524%106.3115.8-9.5
29 Washington Wizards72175524%112.8123.9-11.1
30 Indiana Pacers73165722%111.9120.7-8.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets34344331142
Dallas Mavericks33264135135
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.